Sunday, January 29, 2006

Japanese analysts comment on next-gen console war

Gamespot quotes an article in Japanese gaming magazine Famitsu which cites analysts from Credit Suisse´s Tokyo branch and the Daiwa Institute of Research, as well as an independent analyst, on the next-generation console wars.
Daiwa Institute of Research senior analyst Eiji Maeda predicts the PlayStation 3 will be released in Japan between April and June, but the console will not have much of a third-party lineup until summer or fall. Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Jay Defibaugh (who's currently working in Credit Suisse's Tokyo branch) predicts a similar release period for the PS3, sometime between May and June.

While Sony still has its PS3 launch set for spring, the analysts predict that the console will come out a bit later since the console's games are behind in development. The PS3 is reportedly difficult to develop for, and while there are 71 developers currently working on 102 games, only eight titles have been announced for release in 2006, with just two slated for spring.

Daiwa's Maeda predicts the PS3 is likely to hold the top share in the next-generation console war, but he cites the lack of launch titles as one of the factors that may affect its sales in 2006. Maeda also says the PS3's Blu-ray drive isn't as strong a sales point as the PlayStation 2's DVD drive. Back in 2000, consumers were drawn to the PS2 because it was also a DVD player, eliminating the need to buy a then-expensive stand-alone player. Another point cited by Maeda is the system's price. Maeda predicts that the PS3 will be priced in the 40,000 yen range ($343) at the lowest, while Nintendo's Revolution will be 30,000 yen ($257) at its highest. He also believes that by the time the PS3 comes out, Microsoft will likely have dropped its price on the Xbox 360.

With regard to the Revolution, Famitsu turns to IT journalist Hiroshige Gotoh. Gotoh believes the Revolution has the possibility of succeeding in the next-generation game war because of its innovation and its unique controller. He explained that the console's uniqueness could still match up against machines with higher specs, much like the way the DS has been outselling the PSP.

So when will the Revolution come out? Nintendo president Satoru Iwata recently told Sankei Journal that his company will need to release the console by Thanksgiving in America to take advantage of the busy shopping season. However, Maeda predicts that the Revolution could come out in Japan as early as June. Maeda also said that the machine would still have a larger launch lineup than the PS3, even if it's released that soon.

Credit Suisse's Defibaugh commented that the Xbox 360's sales in Japan were predicted to be low, but its actual performance was even lower. He thinks that the Japanese market will be dominated by the PS3 if the Xbox 360 continues to see sluggish sales in the country.

Daiwa's Maeda says that Microsoft isn't out of the race yet; the company had released its console half a year before its competitors, which gives it an upper hand in mass production and cost cutting.

Defibaugh and Maeda both think the PlayStation 3 will have half of the market in the worldwide next-generation console war by the end of 2006, followed by the Xbox 360 at 30 percent, and the Revolution at 20 percent.
Markets have been looking more favourably upon Nintendo in recent months. I invested a small amount in Nintendo shares just before the controller was revealed at TGS and I have made a profit of around 30% on that. Nintendo shares (at the ´Deutsche Börse´ in Frankfurt) have jumped from just below €90 to around €115 since then.

Source: Gamespot


Anonymous said...

So... wait. Markets have been looking more favorably toward Nintendo, but the analysts still say only a 20% holding. So, everyone is going to scream about Nintendo loosing the race again.

Metaldave said...

I think everyone is going to be surprised at just how good this system is going to sell. Everyone expects another boring Gamecube and they have a right to feel that way. Until Nintendo proves that they really are for real with the Revolution, you are going to hear people saying that it will be a distant third. However, a lot of people are also seeing the chance of it being a cash cow. Let them all say Revolution will be third and it will be Nintendo's last console and then we will be reading about Nintendo's comeback and how down and out they were next year.

Metaldave said...

Ign has put Sunder:Land of Divide and No End Soon on their game list for Revolution! WTF? What do you think about this fala??

Here is the link:

Anonymous said...

IGN put the tags for [rumor] there for a reason. They aren't confirming them or anything.

Anonymous said...

:S anyone seen this? sorry if old

schleif11 said...

Hey fala I been looking into buying stocks for Nintendo since I have a good feeling they might pull in a heavy amount of new gamers and exploded into the number 1 position. How would i go about into buying stocks for them?

therealabdallah said...

Xenias is an old rumour that appeared last year about a futuristic game of the same name. It was later discovered to be pre rendered scenes made by an artist at deviant art. The picture you linked to was likely put together by a fan when those rumors circulated.
Unless for the highly unlikely event that someone else is developing a game for the Revolution by that same name or its referring to something completely different.
In any case, the picture itself reveals nothing but text.

Im getting bored by this whole speculation, even the more qualified guesses, like the one the article describes - I dont think I read much positive speculation on the DSs chances before it launched, and look at the situation now.
This argument can be used in the case of the Revolution in terms of innovation and gameplay, but graphically its going to be much closer to the competition, at least from the average consumers view, than the DS is to the PSP.
I think well see a completely different situation than the analyst predicts, not because Im anticipating the Revolution, but because of its potential and the now obvious effects of Nintendo's strategy with the DS.

SNES Link said...

This is just my imagination running wild, but I would really love to see another DS PSP circumstance. Sony releases an amazing home multimedia system, and it sells well, but the games that are worth playing are few and far between. Whereas Nintendo Dominates sales with a cheaper system that would have constant game releases. And not only would there constant releases, but you could quickly build up a library of noteworthy titles.

madcrasher said...

Off topic: Seen the mock-up of the Rev boot-up screen? I know it's not legit, but it's certainly more well thought-out than some others I've seen.

Fifstar said...

I hope the comments of all those market analysts don't come out as a self fulfilling prophecy. It seems like a lot of developers (or at least their publishers) have lost their trust into nintendo over the last two generations. Maybe this will be enforced by predictions like these.

Anyway, concerning the PSP - DS:

I think Nintendo Fans (which definetly includes me) shouldn't be too sure about winning the handheld race. It seems like developers are still preferring the PSP over the DS. Also, while Nintendo is big in Japan, in the other markets the two handhelds are almost everywhere head to head (and I think in some places like the UK, the PSP enjoys a nice lead) - and the PSP is nearly two times as expensive. If the PSP sees a drop of price and gets some games which are really designed for on the go gaming, it COULD get a massive boost in sales. I mean everybody says that DS has the far better library, but if you take a closer look, I think the DS hasn't so many better games than the PSP (although one has to say that nearly all the good psp games are by far more enjoyable on a home console). Also, I would like to see more good third party games. Nintendo is doing descent right now at producing good classic games as well as games targeted at the casual gamer. But what we see from most other companys isn't only mediocre, most of the times it's downright crap or could have been down on the GBA.

Also, I think that it is difficult to compare handheld and home console market. A lot of people say that because the DS seems to win against the PSP despite being technologically inferior to the PSP, the same could be true for Revo vs. PS3/Xbox 360, but I think that the point of graphics is more important when it comes home to your house. I mean, you don't buy a portable dvd player if you wan't the best picture. if you want the best picture, you buy a dvd player, a big hifi system and a descent tv, which can impress other people. i hope you get my point, I got a bit carried away.

Nevertheless, despite making alot of money, the good thing of the DS success for Nintendo is that japanese customers now are probably much more eager for the Revolution than they were before.

and to the publishers: revolution will dominate the next generation, you better start developing right now!!!

Arsenis said...

Only time will tell...

Anonymous said...

Sales in reality dont mean squat if you aint makin a dime doin it. They should always go by who made the most money, not by who soold the most systems.

trip1eX said...

Good point fifstar. The PSP might see some advantages down the road as it's graphics hold up better and it's cost drops.

You're also right.

The PSP is selling about as well as the DS here in NA from all I read.

The DS is killing the PSP in Japan.

I think Europe is between these two cases.

The PSP tho is even less comparable to the DS when you consider it's as much a movie machine as a game machine with 8 million umds sold compared to 9 million games.

Not to mention music and loading videos and roms onto memory cards.

This might be ok to Sony. But what about game developers? To me the installed base of the PSP isn't as high then if I'm developing games for it because many are buying the PSP as much for umds or media on memory sticks as for games.

YOu make another great point too about graphics being more important in the home as well.

I think that's true too and it helps the DS.

Still I think the Rev might be a great transition console. There's just alot of folks without hi-def still. Won't even be 25% by the end of the year according to a Panasonic exec in a recent IGN interview.

The Rev might just come in and be the fun new toy to play around with until one gets hi-def.

I think also that no ones gives the Rev credit for actually being more powerful than the Cube. What I mean is everyone talks like the graphics will be worse. When of course 3 x RE4 will be nice. And the games will be widescreen and 480p which won't be bad. It'll all be an improvement not a step back.

And coming from the pc world I really think the new controller will be a godsend in some games especially first/third person 3d games. I really think new control will provide a freshness to existing games as much as hi-def. The control itself will feel hi-tech.

Anonymous said...

Nintendo and self-fulfilling prophecy go hand and hand when dealing with analysts.

Case in point: The above discussions about the DS versus the PSP. It's very clear at this point that it doesn't matter what success the DS finds--everyone will just continue to completely pound it home that the PSP is eventually "going to destroy Nintendo." "Eventually"--it's all you hear.

"Wait until its U.S. launch." "Wait until its firmware upgrade." "Wait until it gets new colors." "Wait until GTA." "Wait until TGS lineup is released." "Wait until the price drop." "Just you wait."

None of this--not even these silly Revolution "analyses"--take into account the extreme long-term. Industry experts should spend less time making excuses for their precious convergence guys and start giving credit to the video game companies.

garbagepale said...

I hate to say it for 360 developers but the system is stillborn, it will never sell in Japan; at this point Nintendo looks to have the most secure platform strategy next generation. They are the only company reaching for new consumers.

Anonymous said...

PSP will doom. I think.

By new NDS nintendo may reduce old NDS's price (as gba).
For some one who looking for PSP ...he may have to think and think again at price point.

Anonymous said...

Nintendo makes its critics look bad at times. But as much of fan I am Im still waiting for them to go for the jugular with the whole DS Vs PSP situation. They haven't released a full fledge Zelda, Pokemon,and Super Smashed Bros. These are the games that move systems. The DS lite helps the overall image problem as well as providing a link to the Revolution. But Im still holding out for Nintendo to take off the kid gloves and start attacking the industry. Detractors and all with out and out blitz of that of that Nintendo magic.

Luca S. (Italy) said...

Nintendo helps disabled?

I've retrieved the link of that article on RevolutionReport boards and i think it sound interesting because it suggest possibilities to open a whole new market for the console.

Luca S. (Italy)

Anonymous said...

Hey Fal, its me again,Lightshedder

I was just concerned about something the other day after talking to my cousin (who used to work for Acclaim back then by the way).

He was worried about the PS3 not taking shape in due time since Sony seems to maintain a low profile on the matter.
He ended up wondering if it might have something to do with the design issue..

I on the other hand am inclined to believe that Sony-keeping track of the 360 not being received too well,particularly in Japan-is starting to scrutinise their well tried formula of success.
After all the PS3 won't have the DVDplayer-bonus-impact,its predecessor had, going for it this time around so whats left-similiar to 360-is merely a visual bumb,to which degree albeit remains uncertain.

Anyway,what I am driving at is that in my humble opinion it wouldn't be too far-fetched to presume that Sony is busy copying
the technology of the "remote" controller which in all likelihood seems to illustrate the driving force behind the whole Revolution-concept.Furthermore,It only adds weight to this argument,if one gets it straight that the "remote" controller will likely mark a logical progression as far as interfaces are concerned(I assume its not necessary to elaborate any further why this is the case).

What are your thoughts on the matter?


YankeeHKM said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Lightshedder, If that's true, it's a good thing Nintendo hasn't dropped the bomb on their final secrets. =)

pi said...

About sony's copying ability.

After sony copy n64's analog. This time nintendo may not let them copy again.

Luca S. (Italy) said...

I think Nintendo have patented all the components of the free hand controller. Sony will have some problem to copy it...
Luca S. (Italy)

Anonymous said...

seems 2 be from a magazine? N-Sider?????

Anonymous said...

how long do patents last before they expire, 7 years? 10 years?

therealabdallah said...

Anonymous - read the first parapgraph of my previous post. Its not something youll see on the Revolution.

NintendoMan said...

Falafelkid. I noticed you said that the blog was in fact Seriousgamer007's new blog. I went to that blog and found nothing about him. I am just curious do you have some kind of inside source or are you just making blank statements now that carry no weight.

If I am wrong show me something that proves otherwise. I am not trying to give you a hard time however I think that your claims are getting more and more outlandish lately.

falafelkid said...

Power to the Rainbow

Blizz419 said...

falafel above me we all know your not the real falafel, you lack the profile picture.

and to nintendoman i do not recall him ever stating that about that blog

Anonymous said...

Blizz I am not the one that posted the previous message however I did notice on the bottom of this blog he has a link to that site claiming its the new seriousgamer007 blog. He does have a question mark on the link. I dont see how he came to that conclusion myself either. The blog looks nothing like the old seriousgamer blog and there isnt a profile for anyone.

Dont know.

However that is a bold statement by falafelkid if he doesnt have some kind of solid proof.

falafelkid said...

Hello Blizz. I need to update my portfolio with the picture. Anyhow it is ok. I am comfortable with my sexuality. I am Gay.

It doesnt matter and it shouldnt bother you. Eventually we may take over the world, just not anytime soon.

Stabby said...

FALAFELKID, I really need your advice. When do you think I should buy Nintendo stocks? Should I wait till right before E3 or buy some right now? I'm not expecting much profit at all, I'd be really happy with a 6-10% profit.

I know there are better things to invest in, but I'm only a beginner and I know Nintendo well. I'm not aiming to make huge profits anyway. I'll invest 2500€ and I'd be very happy with only 150€ profit. Do you think a 6-10% rise is likely during E3 and some weeks after?

NOE said...

speaking of seriousgamer. he is in the nintendo europe forums.

NOE said...


falafelkid said...

I am not Falafelkid. This is easy to do, I don't think he's gay because he keeps mentioning his girlfriend. It's probably just one of those people he exposed.

Anonymous said...

Hey check kotaku. The DS is sold out in Japan. AGAIN.

falafelkid said...

Hey he WAS right its easy to do, all you do is press the "other" button when posting and write falafelkid.
Anyway here is a link that you all might find interesting:

A few quotes:
“Control Of Information”

By controlling the information one receives you can control and restrict the individual’s ability to think for himself. You limit what he is able to think about.

Behaviour Control

- The control of an individual’s physical reality.

This can include control of where he lives, what he eats, his clothing, sleep, job, rituals etc. This is why most cults have a stringent schedule for members. There is always something to do in destructive cults. Each cult has its own distinctive set of behaviours that bind it together. This control is so powerful that the cult member will actually participate in their own punishment and come to believe he actually deserves it! No one can command a person’s thoughts but IF YOU CAN CONTROL BEHAVIOUR THEN HEARTS AND MINDS WILL FOLLOW.

Think about it for a few moments..

Anonymous said...

The second quote doesnt really relate, but im tired..

falafelkid said...

it is easy to do....

but anyways.

metaldave said...

Falafelkid if you really are gay i wanna marry you, cuz im gay too.

i love Fal, i really love you, the pink shirt you wore made me realize it you sexy beast.

therealabdalla said...

im gay too we're a bunch of fagots.

Metaldave said...

What the hell is going on??? That last metaldave was not me!!! Ahhh! I'm going to have to change something some how. How can we stop these fakers? Why would he want to fake my name?

I'm not gay by the way, this is so stupid

Get a fucking life!

Shoxware Games said...

Laurent Fischer was today confirmed as Nintendo’s new European marketing boss, filling the role vacated by Jim Merrick late last year.
Fischer assumes the role of senior marketing director for Europe, moving on from his previous position as marketing director for Nintendo France. Meanwhile, Achim Schmauss jumps on board as the new European brand manager.

Fischer,who will be responsible for planning and co-ordinating the European marketing for all of Nintendo’s products, oversaw the launch of Game Boy Colour, Game Boy Advance and GBA SP in his previous job.

“Nintendo is moving into a very exciting and innovative time as we expand the definition of gaming and broaden the population of video games players,” Fischer commented. “I am looking forward to the new challenge of working for Nintendo at a European level in this particularly significant period.”

In addition, Nintendo reconfirmed its position that Revolution is set for a worldwide roll-out in 2006, adding that Schmauss will be responsible for the pan-European marketing activities for the next-generation home console “which launches in 2006”.

Also on Schmauss’ remit is overseeing the release of The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, still due for a release on GameCube.

Anonymous said...

The one doing the duplicate names is simply selecting the "Other" identity, typing in his name as whomever, and putting his webpage as that same person's profile.

He seems pretty upset about something - do you think we should stop writing this blog? ;(

Metaldave said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Metaldave said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Metaldave said...

Ugh, I've been trying to get the right picture on my blog profile. I think this will do for now. I hope the faker can't copy this one! So now the REAL metaldave has the pic with it.

Arsenis said...

what the hell is going on here...

Arsenis said...

i guess he is mad because we all support Falafelkid.

therealabdallah said...

This is really a shit system, Ill stick to anonymous comments from now on, there is NO reason to use the username when anyone can use them.

On a sidenote, I cant understand the apparant obsession about manly sex some people have. Try to think about something else at least for just a few minutes once in a while. Well thats the last youll here from me with this name.

Falafelkid said...

Hi everyone. I will stop deleting those fake comments. You may be able to simply log in as a guest, giving yourself a blogger´s name and pasting his blogger profile´s URL into the homepage field. But you cannot replicate a picture if one has been set. So I would recommend that every blogger should get one.

Hi Stabby. I hope you have thought this one through. Investing € 2.500 in a single company is a high risk. If you are prepared to take it, though, I would recommend waiting not too long. Observe the share price closely this week. It is currently down and may slip below € 110 per share. I would recommend buying at the lowest possible price before Reggie´s speech at D.I.C.E. We just don´t know how much he might reveal then. I do estimate that Nintendo´s shares will jump rapidly, once the business world realises the Revolution´s potential.

Hi Nintendoman. Rather than posting generalised statements like "I think that your claims are getting more and more outlandish lately" please elaborate. What do you believe I have claimed that was not backed by solid facts? If you are referring to ´Sunder´, some people tend to forget that I was 100% right about that.

About this blog, the slideshow refers to the username ´kingofgamers2006´, so it is obvious that the owner either is SG007 or, at the very least, wants to be seen as his successor.

Falafelkid said...

Oh, and the email address given reads ´´.

therealabdallah said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
FedUP! said...

Oh who cares about SeriousGamer007. Everyone knows its Ramsey from

Let is be. No one cares anymore.

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