Sony will not be able to supply more than 200.000 units for the PlayStation3´s US launch, estimates Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian. Sebastian, quoted in a Next-Gen article, estimates that the shipment could be as low as 150.000 units. He cites retail checks as a source for his analysis. The article goes on:
Sony has said that it plans to ship 400,000 units to North America for the PS3’s launch day, with between 1-1.2 million shipping by the end of calendar 2006. Recently, however, mega-publisher Electronic Arts estimated 2006 PS3 North American shipments to be a substantially lower 500K-800K.
Sebastian estimated that Sony would sell around 750K PS3s domestically by year-end. (...) Sebastian added that he expects the Wii to sell 1.2 million units in the U.S. by year-end.
This estimate appears quite credible in the light of recent comments by SCEA co-chairman Jack Tretton that the 400.000 unit figure for the North American launch shipment was more of a target.
If true, this could be detrimental to Sony and the PlayStation3. My guess was that Sony had favoured the US launch, when splitting the worlwide launch shipment between the two regions. Now, it seems, the production problems may be even more severe than expected. The US launch shipment may have been split in half (bearing in mind that the 400.000 included the launch shipment for Canada).
Seriously - all fanboy allegiance aside for the moment - wouldn´t you start to worry if you had your money riding on that horse? If I was a publisher that had committed an exclusive title to the console, I would start to consider alternative options.
EDIT And KOEI has. The publisher has decided to take ´Fatal Inertia´ and ´Blade Storm´ also to the Xbox360, according to Joystiq.
As far as the numbers game is concerned, some analysts estimate the PS3 launch shipment to have been as small as 125.000 consoles.
Thanks to: Joystiq