Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Less than 200.000 PS3 units for US launch, says analyst



Sony will not be able to supply more than 200.000 units for the PlayStation3´s US launch, estimates Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian. Sebastian, quoted in a Next-Gen article, estimates that the shipment could be as low as 150.000 units. He cites retail checks as a source for his analysis. The article goes on:

Sony has said that it plans to ship 400,000 units to North America for the PS3’s launch day, with between 1-1.2 million shipping by the end of calendar 2006. Recently, however, mega-publisher Electronic Arts estimated 2006 PS3 North American shipments to be a substantially lower 500K-800K.

Sebastian estimated that Sony would sell around 750K PS3s domestically by year-end. (...) Sebastian added that he expects the Wii to sell 1.2 million units in the U.S. by year-end.

This estimate appears quite credible in the light of recent comments by SCEA co-chairman Jack Tretton that the 400.000 unit figure for the North American launch shipment was more of a target.


If true, this could be detrimental to Sony and the PlayStation3. My guess was that Sony had favoured the US launch, when splitting the worlwide launch shipment between the two regions. Now, it seems, the production problems may be even more severe than expected. The US launch shipment may have been split in half (bearing in mind that the 400.000 included the launch shipment for Canada).

Seriously - all fanboy allegiance aside for the moment - wouldn´t you start to worry if you had your money riding on that horse? If I was a publisher that had committed an exclusive title to the console, I would start to consider alternative options.

EDIT And KOEI has. The publisher has decided to take ´Fatal Inertia´ and ´Blade Storm´ also to the Xbox360, according to Joystiq.

As far as the numbers game is concerned, some analysts estimate the PS3 launch shipment to have been as small as 125.000 consoles.


Source: Next-Gen
Thanks to: Joystiq

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

I didn't know the difference between the two would be so huge. 150,000 and 1.2 million? Wow.

Grandmaster B said...

No that was for the EOY I believe that figure. It was 400k to 150k for launch.

I love this blog. Lately its been about the dismal news of pathetic Sony. Great work Fal, heh.

Falafelkid said...

Hi Anonymous.

No, the 1,2 million units was the target until year-end and for all of North America, I believe. 150.000 is all Sony may be able to ready for the US launch day.

Falafelkid said...

Hi Grandmaster.

We posted at the same time ;)

By the way, if you register today with Marvel Ultimate Alliance, you enter to win a Wii.

The I.A.L.S said...

Is it just me or is conventional gameplay with standard controllers getting boring?

Just recently I went to my local game dealer and bought Jak 3 for PS2, supposedly one of the best jump and run/action-adventure games that are available for the system (after reading some marvelous reviews of the game I should add).

Having spent about 5-6 hours or so with the game I must confess that I have a strange feeling. I can't help it. I have a feeling that is creeping the ish out of me.
A feeling of emptiness.

And you know why ?

Because-lo and behold- I'm sitting here and wondering what at all got me into gaming.
Somehow, after playing Jak 3 I feel totally out of touch with games.
There is nothing that conjoins me with them anymore.

And you know what the weirdest thing about all this is?

Jak 3 isn't even a bad game at all.
Far from it. Quite the opposite frankly.
It's actually one hell of nimble designed piece of interactive entertainment.
It does nothing wrong.
It's perfectly paced and offers so much alteration(you fly,jump,cruise,shoot,slide,kick,glide,float etc.).
I would go as far as to say that it's one of the best put together games I have ever played.
It's challenging without being unfair or too easy.
The controlls and graphics are also quite buttery.
In fact it does so much right that I wouldn't even dare to critizise it, I wouldn't even know how to put it in words to be honest.

Yet while playing it, I never got that sense of delight and achievment, progressing through the game.

This game just totally crushed my world view.

How on earth could I not have fun with a game that totally appeals to me ? a game that does so much right ? a game that has such a charming, vivid style ?

Just how on earth ?

Is it due to me being stoned all the time, taking hits from the bong day by day maybe?

Or am I simply jaded ?

Or have I simply played too many games with the same gameplay formulas eventhough they are not as well put together?

Or am I just a labile,disoriented,psychotic,neurotic weirdo since "every day feels like is an off day with Ferris Buler"?


To conclude,I guess either one of those or conventional controllers simply don't do it anymore for me...



-IALS

M. Ferreira said...

Seriously, there's only one word to describe what Sony must bee feeling: "Ouch!"

Reducing the shipments again can only hurt the company at this point. There will be not one, but two substitutes available this year: both of which can effectively steal Sony's thunder, and prevent the company from generating momentum.

This isn't meant to be a "SONY IS TEH DUME'D (sic)" post at all. However, the company's games division is going to have a truly difficult, if not near-impossible time recovering from this setback.

El Informante said...

Hey Fal, just dropped by to say i like your blog a lot, is quite an interesting point of view of things that most people overlooks.

The I.A.L.S. said...

In context to my above post:

New IALS aka Celltherapy IGN topic is up.

It's called :

"JAK 3 and how it changed my view of the world"

http://boards.ign.com/Message.aspx?

topic=131256604&brd=8270&start=1312

58679


Feel free to participate.

Thanx, appreciate it.

-IALS

DeAngelo Guillory said...

Somewhere in the world, a giant Wii remote is causing Kutaragi great rectal pain.

The I.A.L.S said...

Somewhere in the world, a giant Wii remote is causing Kutaragi great rectal pain.


Ouch


;)



-IALS

Shaun said...

It's too late for developers and publishers to look elsewhere, at least as far as xmas is concerned. Since development to publishing takes at least 1 year we won't see the effects of this xmas for a while.

You have to wonder though with low xmas sales due to shortages will the sales really pick up mid-year. If most people decide to wait for a price drop too then it really won't be worth developers time on the console this year as potential sales will be so low.

I doubt many developers will jump ship with projects. Since it's expected the PS3 will gain speed in a year most developers will plod on as usual i suspect.

Sony is a big ship to sink, whilst the PS3 could sink it, i doubt it will go down without a fight. All they really need do is make enough and cut the price by £100 and they would be on top within a year.

Traveller said...

Hey Falafelkid

I just want to ask if you'd mind adding my blog to your links page? Im starting to update more, and would like to try and get the word out there.

Thanks Nick

PS: Im not trying to spam, just thought this would be the easist way to ask you.

www.tendo-gamer.blogspot.com

Grandmaster B said...

Fal, were you still planning to post that video of your interview with Sacha?

Falafelkid said...

Hi Traveller.

Im not trying to spam, just thought this would be the easist way to ask you.

Not at all, this is the best way of getting in touch. You have been added, thanks for the heads-up and for linking to me.

Hi Grandmaster.

Fal, were you still planning to post that video of your interview with Sacha?

I am, but I am really busy at the moment. That music video is finally on the horizon and it will have to be finished by Christmas. So you might have to be patient until then, I am afraid. Sorry.

Grandmaster B said...

Oh no worries at all. It has been a while so I thought I would follow it up.

I am a patient guy........

The I.A.L.S said...

Fal, were you still planning to post that video of your interview with Sacha?

I am, but I am really busy at the moment. That music video is finally on the horizon and it will have to be finished by Christmas. So you might have to be patient until then, I am afraid. Sorry.


-------------------------


Sacha?

You mean Sascha aka Dick Brave ?

*lol*

I see.....

50 posts and counting by the way..




-IALS

The I.A.L.S said...

By the way kid that sample was from the song "Inside my love" by Minnie Ripperton.



-IALS

Anonymous said...

wow. for the first time in ages i actually agree with ials again. feels kinda good.

ials: dude... i know exactly how you're feeling. just 2 nights ago i sat down with a good friend to finally try marvel ultimate alliance for his xbox. i love marvel characters, and i love hack'n'slash action rpgs. it was multiplayer: bonus. the characters had awesome moves, the voice-overs were kickass, the games graphics and environments were sweet... everything was in place...

but somehow i was falling asleep. i was BORED. i even said it to my friend, "dude... somehow it seems like playing with a regular controller and just pushing buttons is really boring."

he just laughed, writing me off as a fanboy. which i am. but still. i was serious.

after he left, all i could think about was how much more fun marvel ultimate alliance would be for wii. how much more immersive it would feel. it's really weird.

also, i was *not* stoned, which i was thinking might be the reason. funny that you, ials, thought that *being* stoned *was* the reason, though. strange.

anyways, one thing is for sure. if sony has a measly 500k ps3s shipped and sold by the time metal gear solid 4 comes out, konami and kojima are going to be PISSED. expect this title to come to xbox360 (which is something i actually predicted like a year ago). same for final fantasy 13 or any other huge ps3 exclusives. they're spending tens of millions of dollars on the production of these "blockbusters", and if they don't have an installed base to sell to... they're going to lose a LOT of money.

expect more publishers to jump ship from ps3 *after* they release their games and nobody buys them. that's what happened to dreamcast, gamecube, even 3do and cd-i. it was the horrible install base. companies made games for these systems, they completely tanked, and those companies decided not to make any more games for them. simple as that.

god i can't wait for my wii. 4 more days. i have it reserved. also my gamestop just got red steel and zelda in stock today, and since they're already bought and paid for, i'm going to go pick them up on my lunch break and probably drool all over the instruction booklets until i get my wii.

anyway, thanks for the post, ials. very interesting.

-"superfan" tactics.

.::tOUCH-gEN::. said...

@ I.A.L.S

I totaly agree with you. For some time now, ive been getting bored of gaming and for me it really comes down to the gameplay. Ive been playing pretty much since gaming began and have never felt like this...It isnt the gaming scenarios nor is it the stories, rather its the controller. I remember when the N64 came along, not only was it 3D gaming but it had what we consider the standard controller thats still used today.

But, now im looking for something new...a reason why im soo excited for wii. I cannot wait for a new way to control my games and really open up new types of software that isnt the norm. I own alot of different consoles spanning the years and the only one im playing at the moment is the DS because it has some really kool gameplay elements that you just cant get anywhere else.

I know NINTENDO will make great use off the wiimote and nun-chuck to create new experiences and along with many other developers make the games I already love but with the added funtion of the new generation of control.

FINAL NOTE: I do however find myself of late playing alot of old school titles like Zelda, Golden Axe, Mario, Metroid even DOOM and so on. These games have more appeal to me because there just about gameplay!!!

MtnHippy said...

And all 200,000 will be gone immediately. I wanted to sell one on ebay and make a little cash, but I've been calling around to all the local Target, Walmart, and BestBuy stores. Lines are already forming at every store I called. It's 50 degrees and raining here, and I have to work tomorrow, so no ebaying for me. Oh well, now I can stop stressing about staying there overnight tomorrow and focus on playing my pre-ordered Wii.

MtnHippy

The I.A.L.S said...

Thanks for your feedback Superfan and Touch-gen.

I feel ya there.

Appreciate it!


Farewell.



-IALS

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