Looking ahead at 2011

Allow me to give you a brief glimpse of what 2011 will bring to this blog and videogames in general. ´Duke Nukem Forever´ will actually be released and kick off what will be a great year in gaming. The PlayStation phone will be announced. Soonafter, the 3DS will be launched and will undoubtedly sell like hotcakes, despite a hefty price tag of $249 and €249, respectively. Its success will convince the consumer electronics industry at large that autostereoscopic displays are the way forward. 2011 will definitely be a strong year for mobile gaming.

Do not expect any news about home consoles. No new consoles will be announced, for sure. Sony and Microsoft have just updated their hardware and will want to hedge their bets. What about these updates? I have always believed that Kinect will outsell Move because Move is too similar to the Wii controller. After playing with both long enough, I do not see Kinect games as having a lasting appeal, though. Give me ´Socom 4´ with Move any day. ´Kinect Adventures´ may be full of great and original ideas. But this type of game seems to be the only type available and the Wii cornered this market four years ago.

Almost every Kinect hack out there seems to have more appeal than the actual games. Of course, Microsoft will want to push Kinect in 2011 by churning out great software for it. But remember that they chose to drop an internal chip which leaves the actual console with the additional calculations. Analysts have not been sure whether this will affect performance in a noticable way, but this point may explain why we have not yet seen a ´Gears of War´ type game working with Kinect and, perhaps, never will. What commentators have been sure about is the additional lag the system is burdened with, as a result. And even leaving this point aside, I am still sceptical of the hardware (I am sceptical of any entertainment product that actually tells me to move my furniture before I start playing) because I simply have not had very satisfactory playing experiences in general.

Move already has a far more diverse portfolio and this should make Move sell far better than Kinect in 2011. But Move will not become a system seller for the console. Nintendo took a huge gamble by including motion controls in the console and, pretty much, forcing developers to incorporate it into all games. But by doing so, they did not fragment the user base further.

A PS3 or Xbox developer has to consider that the number of motion control interfaces sold for either platform is only a small fraction of each console's total hardware base. Why develop only for a few million potential customers when you could be developing for a few dozen - at less cost to boot? Kinect and Move will both sell in 2011 (with Move outselling Kinect, I believe) but both will never be truly successful. Neither hardware will play a significant role come 2012.

Nintendo will reduce the Wii's price tag in 2011 and be awarded by another and much needed sales spike. The 3DS will have some nifty ways of being hooked up to a Wii, I expect, and this interoperability will further help the home console's sales somewhat. I stand by my year-old prediction that the Wii will remain market leader this generation. PS3 and Xbox will outsell the Wii for much of 2011 (Nintendo will reduce the price in the late second half and then significantly, I believe) but they will not come close to the Wii's life-to-date sales.

What will 2011 bring to this blog? First of all, the year will start with a redesign and a new focus. I will publish everything from mammoth articles to short notices to reduce the wait and accomodate my increasingly hefty professional workload. And, of course, I will finally publish that Nibris article soon, which I believe will be very worthwhile. Like the one on Crossbeam Studios, I also expect this one to have swift and far-reaching consequences. The main reason for it still not being online is that hardly anyone wants to talk about Nibris. Even the founders do not want to talk about it, it seems. I have not yet received a reply to my interview questions via mail.

And, finally, what will 2011 hold in store for me? Well, I very much hope to be able to share some great and interesting news with you very soon, regarding my professional future. Last year, I already broadened my horizon significantly by co-hosting the European Innovative Games Award in Frankfurt. This year, I will be able to share a new and exciting project with you, if everything goes well. As 2010 ends, though, I would like to thank each and every one of you for continued support of this blog. I realise that updates have been far too rare of late but I promise you that 2011 will be different. Have a good one ushering in the new year. 2011 will be a blast.

The future of games

At the D.I.C.E. Summit, which closed yesterday, Jesse Schell held an interesting talk on the future of gaming. Schell is CEO of Schell Games and tutor at the faculty of the Entertainment Technology Center at Carnegie Mellon University. He also used to work for Disney and still acts as a consultant for them.

His presentation entitled ´Design Outside The Box´ examines recent phenomena in gaming and their impact, as well as the future, where mundane tasks may come in the form of videogames.

I would like to introduce his presentation as follows. Consider a single game that is currently played by more than 70 million active users. Sounds impossible? No, there really is a game like that. But they must have collected this user base over many, many years, right? No, they only started out in June, so that is barely more than half a year.

That game in question, arguably the most successful game in the world at this point, is FarmVille on Facebook. Developer Zynga Game Network has attracted some big talent from traditional game companies. Its Vice President of Game Development should sound familiar: Mike Verdu recently left Electronic Arts, where he was General Manager at EALA and responsible for the ´Command & Conquer´ series.

What's more, Richard Garriott, better known as Lord British (´Ultima´, ´Tabula Rasa´), has just announced he is moving into social gaming and will be using Facebook as a platform with his new company Portalarium.

I myself have argued many times on this blog that the epicentre of gaming has already shifted with Wii. A core player is no longer one fond of gory horror and action shooters, but of ´Wii Fit´ and ´Brain Training´. Those games now constitute the core of gaming - which is a simple question of numbers. And now, Facebook is fast becoming the core of gaming. How will that change gaming? Where will gaming head in the future? Let Jesse Schell tell you.




Source: G4TV
Thanks to: Bitmob

How good is ´Alan Wake´?

How good is ´Alan Wake´? The game by Finnish studio Remedy (´Max Payne´) has been tipped as one of the big hopefuls for the Xbox360. I just attended a presentation of the exclusive title in Hamburg and had a good hour hands-on time – enough to give you some first impressions.

Alan and I go way back

´Alan Wake´ has been in development for at least five years. I remember a presentation at Microsoft’s showcase event X06, where the basics all seemed in place and at least one level was playable (though journalists did not get any hands-on time). It is an open secret that the game was reworked significantly a number of times. The developers noted that the game was finished last summer and they have allocated almost a year for quality assurance and fine tuning. Obviously, after pouring this many resources into it, Remedy and Microsoft have a lot riding on this ticket. To be fair, the developer is only about fifty people strong, which is rather small for a project of this magnitude. They did use sub-contractors for a number of tasks, though.

So, was it worth it? Can ´Alan Wake´ measure up to upcoming exclusives on the competing consoles like ´Heavy Rain´ on PS3 or ´Metroid: Other M´ on Wii? Luckily, at the event, Microsoft lifted the original embargo agreement, which all attendees had to sign beforehand, which would have prevented me from writing in detail about the game until mid-March.

Photorealism meets ethereal effects

The brief presentation by the developers was impressive and the visuals lived up to the hype. While the character models do not measure up to those in ´Heavy Rain´ and the lip-syncing is off far too often, the environments appear more detailed and meticulously crafted. This type of photorealistic depiction is offset by many ethereal effects like mist or fog. The contrast between light and dark plays a central role in the gameplay mechanics and glow and burn effects give the game a unique visual touch. Also, the zombie-like attackers, which Alan encounters in the night, called ´The Taken´, are surrounded by a smouldering aura and they often become semi-transparent or vanish completely. When attacking them, Alan needs to blind them with a light source and shoot them with either a gun or, more effectively, a flare. When dead, ´The Taken´ dissolve in a burst of glowing light. Flares are fired in slow motion with the camera following the projectile.

A leaf or two out of Stephen King novels

The central element of ´Alan Wake´ is the story. The main protagonist is a famous writer who has come to the little town of Bright Falls for inspiration. As his wife disappears, Alan finds himself entangled in a thriller he has written but has no memory of writing. He finds pages of a script by him which anticipate what will happen next, which makes for an eerie and uncomforting sense of foreboding.

Obviously, Remedy took a leaf or two out of Stephen King novels like ´Misery´, television series like ´Twin Peaks´ or movies like ´The Shining´ (the latter is even mentioned by Alan Wake when an axe-wielding foe is about to break down the door separating them).

Inspired from seminal horror films and television series

Rather than putting Alan up against ´The Taken´ only, the game presents them only as one humanoid manifestation of what is referred to as ´The Dark Presence´. In other manifestations, oil barrels start to roll around and hover or cars are tossed up into the air and rammed into the ground. This way, the game continuously reminds you that you are up against something much larger and much more powerful than the regular foes you are facing – a very effective and fairly unique aspect. Games like ´Resident Evil´ usually put you up against larger enemies in boss battles only. ´Alan Wake´ often confronts you with those forces without you being able to fight back. With these supernatural phenomena suggesting an evil omnipresence, you may be reminded of movies like ´Poltergeist´.

The game also draws on many other elements from seminal horror films. As in the original ´Nightmare on Elm Street´, no enemy is clearly visible. ´The Taken´ are dark, as if they are covered in soot, and further shrouded in the ethereal, smouldering aura I described earlier. As in ´Evil Dead´, evil voices constantly turn from shrieking high-pitch to an unnatural low and back, while also sounding metallic or robotized. I found this feature as effective as it seemed familiar and almost obvious, which made me wonder why no other game has utilized this before, to my knowledge. Many other journalists at the event noted the outstanding audio design in general.

Finally, the presentation of the story is also unusual for videogames and invokes jargon known from television series. Players a given a recap of the story so far, introduced by the narrator announcing “previously on Alan Wake” and finishing the segment with “Alan Wake continues.”

Conclusion

The hour or so of hands-on time was too short to comment on gameplay mechanics at great length. The level we were able to play took place mostly during the night. We were simply told that the night and day cycle were key gameplay elements, as well as the dynamic weather. As far as health goes, I should mention that your health recharges with time or while standing under a street light or such, where you are also safe from attacks.

The hour was sufficient, though, to be able to say that ´Alan Wake´ looks like a very solid effort and is genuinely scary. It is clearly inspired by media other than videogames, which is refreshing. Its gameplay mechanics, though, draw mainly on tried and tested elements with a few original ideas thrown in for good measure. In stark contrast to a title like ´Heavy Rain´, ´Alan Wake´ feels more like a traditional game. It throws you into the action straight away and gives you the story basics later, while ´Heavy Rain´ takes a long time before you get to do anything exciting in the traditional sense of action videogames. Whether this will help or hinder sales remains to be seen. But, perhaps unfortunately, I believe that the majority of gamers will stick with what they know. So I expect ´Alan Wake´ to sell more copies than ´Heavy Rain´.

Coming up

Finally, I will be attending the Game Developers Conference (GDC) in San Francisco next month. So stick with me while I can bring you more exclusive impressions of upcoming titles. Later this year, I will be able to make a big announcement regarding my work. And if only my various contacts get back in touch, I should also be able to publish the article on Polish Wii developer Nibris within a few weeks.

Summing up 2009, looking ahead at 2010

As the year is coming to an end, I would like to look at the three consoles and assess their current situation, while looking ahead at their potential performance in 2010.




The Wii is still the runaway success of this generation, but Nintendo obviously has the most to lose from this point on. Astonishingly, some Wii first party titles have remained among the top sellers across all platforms for years. ´Mario Kart´ and ´Wii Fit´ sold as much as ´Grand Theft Auto IV´ in 2008 and are among a total of five Wii titles in this year's top ten sellers in the US so far.

As far as a slowdown in hardware sales is concerned, some observers have overstated the case, I believe. Of course, when comparing sales this year to 2008, the numbers have indeed slowed down significantly. The price cut is the best proof of that. Companies only ever cut the price when the product is not selling. That was true of the Xbox360 and PS3 as well as the Wii. But NPD analyst Anita Frazier recently pointed out how well the Wii is doing still.

While there has been a lot of focus on Wii sales as compared to last year, the system was still the best-selling console system by a margin of 54 per cent. (...)

At this same point in the PS2 lifecycle, the PS2 was down in unit sales by 23 per cent over the previous year, but as history has shown, it continues to have a great deal of life left in it. So focusing on a comparison to Wii's stellar 2008 performance masks the reality of just how well this system is selling.

So do not worry. Nintendo is still raking in the money with both the hardware and first party software. But how well are third parties doing on the Wii? We had this discussion in January 2008 and again in August as well as in October of that year. In the last post, I noted the following:

A grand economic success of titles like ´The Conduit´, ´House of the Dead: Overkill´ or ´MadWorld´ will surely become examples the entire industry will follow. On the other hand, if these titles sell poorly, the Wii will get less and less mature titles and will become a casual console.

By now, it is quite clear that the latter scenario came true. All titles mentioned sold poorly or even abysmal, despite two of them being great games. So the Wii has failed as a platform for mature games by third parties, it must be said. And it is highly unlikely that this will change. In fact, I believe that Capcom may be regretting moving ´Monster Hunter Tri´ from a PS3 exclusive over to the Wii. The game is selling very well in Japan, but international sales are likely to disappoint as was the case with the games mentioned above. Of course, the Wii has become the console of choice for survival horror and Resident Evil fans alone cannot afford to be without ´Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition´, ´Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles´ and ´Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles´. But we are still waiting for a decent shooter and a few other genres, notably RPGs, are also understaffed.

Nintendo is even openly criticised by partners like Electronic Arts. Their CEO John Riccitiello has expressed disappointment about poor sales on the Wii platform and noted some problems Nintendo may be facing in the near future.

One, it's a very compelling platform. Two, third-parties can do a lot better on the platform with the right support from Nintendo. They've always been first-party-centric, and they're learning how to be third-party supportive.

My belief is the first platform to reach $149 is going to inherit much of that [PlayStation2] business. (...) The Wii is not gone. But if they maintain $199 and don't innovate, they're going to have a hard time competing with what's already been announced from Microsoft and Sony.

According to Games Industry, Riccitiello made the following remarks in the company's recent earnings call.

To be honest with you, I think the Wii platform has been a little weaker than we had certainly anticipated. And there is no lack of frustration to be doing that at precisely the time where we have the strongest third-party share. (...)

I think driving revenues up on that platform from where we already are, which is up substantially from where we were a year ago, we are reaching out to Nintendo to find ways to partner to push third-party software harder.

Wii is where we are missing it and so I really do think that the opportunity exists to find different ways to partner with first party in this case to sort of help establish in the minds of the consumer legitimacy of some of these other brands when they are going out multiplatform because very, very few multiplatform titles are succeeding on the Wii. (...)

I would point out, by the way, the 50 million number of course includes Asia or Japan and I don’t think any of the Western companies are likely to participate much at all on the Wii platform in Japan, so the addressable market we see is just a little bit below 40 million but that is still an important opportunity.

In the transcript of the earnings call, more background is provided.

Fiscal Year To Date, EA is the #1 independent publisher on the Wii with share of 21% in North America and we estimate 14% in Europe – up 8 and 10 points, respectively. Our non-GAAP Wii revenue is up 50% year-over-year. While we have hit our share goal for the Wii business, revenue is well below expectations due to underperformance of the Wii platform.

The problem is clear. Being such a strong first party publisher, Nintendo itself made most of the money off of the Wii platform. Although it is the clear market leader and will likely remain at the top, Nintendo failed to mobilise third parties. So whatever successor Iwata and Miyamoto are planning, it will suffer from the very same problem.

In fact, a successor to the Wii will in itself be a grand challenge. Normally, companies innovate with one generation and consolidate with the next. At least, this is the way Nintendo has done it so far. With the Wii lagging so clearly behind the competition in terms of hardware power and the competition ramping up their own motion control systems, which will no doubt be perceived as more advanced when they hit the market, Nintendo cannot afford to consolidate.

The next console, which may be called ´Zii´, had better be as innovative as the Wii. And in my mind, the only way this can be achieved is by some kind of 3D visuals. There has been plenty of evidence to support this and Sony is already ramping up their efforts in this department.




Yet Sony has very little money to invest. The corporation has come under intense pressure this year to reduce the price of their PlayStation3. They finally did and sales soared. However, this means that Sony is still subsidizing each unit sold, according to market intelligence firm iSuppli.

Based on a dissection and analysis of the console, iSuppli has determined that the 120Gbyte Hard Disk Drive (HDD) version new PlayStation 3, released in September, carries a combined Bill of Materials (BOM) and manufacturing/test cost of $336.27. At a newly reduced retail price of $299, the latest version of the PlayStation 3 comes closer to breaking even than any previous version of the product.

Losing money on each hardware unit sold some three years after the product launch is probably unprecedented in this industry and it is, naturally, the economics of the madhouse. At the very least, it is a huge gamble for Sony. They are finally selling decent amounts. But will those sales figures be enough to convince third parties to commit to more exclusives and thus spur on sales even more?

Notable PS3 third party exclusives are: ´Agent´, ´Final Fantasy XIII Versus´ and ´Final Fantasy XIV Online´, ´Heavenly Sword´, ´Last Guardian´, ´Metal Gear Solid 4´, ´Ninja Gaiden Sigma´ series, ´Ridge Racer 7´ and ´Valkyria Chronicles´. This list is clearly dominated by titles which do well in Japan, but may not prove to be blockbusters in Europe or North America. As a counterweight to this, first and second party titles appear to come predominantly from the company's North American and European branches, SCEA and SCEE. Yet with the majority of PS3 third party titles also available on Xbox360, which is significantly cheaper and boasts a more impressive list of third party exclusives, the Xbox360 still looks like the better proposition.

I believe that motion control will be the deciding factor. If the PS3's ´Sphere´ can outshine the 360's ´Project Natal´, Sony has a chance to come second this generation. The launch portfolio and the marketing will decide which system buyers will see as the technological successor to the Wii. ´Sphere´ has the advantage that the technology has been around and has been tested by Sony for almost ten years. At the ECTS 2001 in London (before the launch of ´Eye Toy´ for the PS2), I played a technological predecessor to ´Sphere´. Colored swords and maces were simulated on-screen and in real-time. This was only ever used in marginal games like ´Eye Toy Hero´. But Sony sure has perfected this technology since. It is a slim chance (pun intended), but 2010 could yet become the year of the PS3.

It could all go wrong, however. Let us not forget that IBM discontinued the Cell chip line, after Sony had talked the chip up to be the ultimate CPU, soon to revolutionise not just personal and super computers but also household electronics. This decision has ramifications for a possible PS3 successor, or rather betrays Sony's future plans (because if Sony had planned for a Cell-based PS4, IBM would not have discontinued the chip line). It seems highly unlikely that such a device would have a Cell-based chip, which in turn spells a high research and development budget. Quite obviously, this is money Sony does not have and/or is unwilling to invest. So, the worst case scenario is Sony no longer planning a PlayStation4. As unlikely as this might be, it is certainly a possibility.




It seems that there is next to no news regarding the Xbox360 at this point in time. And this is good. Unlike with the Wii and PS3, no third party is complaining about the platform, no analyst is heralding an imminent doom and most gamers seem content, too. Everyone is happy with the console's performance, it seems. And there is every reason to be.

Third party support is arguably the best among the three. Exclusive games of note include ´Alan Wake´, ´Lost Odyssey´, ´Blue Dragon´, ´GTA IV DLC´, ´Dead Rising´, ´Beautiful Katamari´, ´Lost Planet´ (timed), ´Gears of War´ and ´Mass Effect´ series, ´Too Human´, ´Ninety-Nine Nights´ and ´Prey´ series, ´Splinter Cell: Conviction´, ´Ridge Racer 6´, ´Quake 4´, ´Left 4 Dead´ series and ´Dead or Alive 4´. Alongside Microsoft's own efforts concentrating heavily on family friendly gaming (albeit this is more evident in their marketing than in the actual software output), I believe the 360's portfolio to be the most balanced overall, particularly as traditional gaming (without motion control) is concerned.

Of course, the console business has been an extremely costly endeavour for Microsoft, leaving nothing but a bill of around six billion US-Dollar by 2007. And while the division (which also includes the Zune player) is at least making money, their operating income declined 66 percent from 2008. As is the case with Sony, Microsoft still appears to be subsidizing most SKUs, since they shipped more consoles in 2009 than in 2008, while operating income fell.

Xbox 360 platform and PC game revenue decreased $161 million or 3%, primarily as a result of decreased revenue per Xbox 360 console due to price reductions during the past 12 months, partially offset by increased Xbox 360 console sales and increased Xbox Live revenue. We shipped 11.2 million Xbox 360 consoles during fiscal year 2009, compared with 8.7 million Xbox 360 consoles during fiscal year 2008. Foreign currency exchange rates accounted for a $74 million or one percentage point decrease in revenue.

It is fair to say that Microsoft bought its way into the home console business. But considering that the company has the financial stamina to continue investing in the project, this may yet turn out to be a worthwhile enterprise. I have always said that if Microsoft had known the full extent of the necessary investment, they would obviously never have entered the market. But now that they are in and seeing some success, they are here to stay.

They are still clearly in second place and ´Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2´ selling more than double on Xbox360 than on the PS3 in the US underlines their dominance in their home market. While the console will probably never see sustained growth in Japan, it is doing very well in Europe. And a strong position in two out of three territories, as well as the number two worldwide is not a bad place to be.

Just like I noted above, Microsoft's fortune will greatly depend on the public perception of ´Project Natal´ as opposed to Sony's ´Sphere´. I see the Wii as unbeatabale in this generation, just like the analyst cited above. But Nintendo will lose reputation to either of the competing motion control technologies. And ´Project Natal´ has some very compelling features. No controller at all is a great proposition for everyone who does not want videogaming invading his living room and cluttering up the space. The downside of it is that it is not easily suited for all kinds of games. I do not see any chance of playing a shooter with ease. And even for racing games, I doubt that it will deliver the precision needed. That will not be too much of a disadvantage if a game like ´Milo´ can bring a new level of artificial intelligence and interaction to gamers. If done right, this game alone has the power to keep Microsoft ahead of Sony for the remainder of this generation.

Sources: see above
Thanks to: Joystiq, Joystiq, Joystiq

Why the Wii needs a price cut fast

Smooth ride up until now

The Wii needs a price cut fast and here is why. Up until now, Nintendo has had a very smooth ride this generation. They started out with the lowest price proposition by far and the most revolutionary, intuitive and immersive control scheme and biggest fun factor to top it all off. At least, that is what more than 50 million people around the globe think.

Sure, the white box can only deliver 480p as its top resolution. And the rest of its hardware is equally modest, making sure that most graphics-intensive games by third parties get either a toned down version, a completely unique adaptation (some examples are ´Overlord: Dark Legend´, ´Dead Space Extraction´, ´Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles´) or pass the console by completely. But, all the unquestionable Nintendo goodness aside (´Metroid Prime 3´, ´Zelda: Twilight Princess´, ´Super Mario Galaxy´), hardcore gamers got a few third party gems, too. Particularly in the survival horror genre, Wii boasts more titles than any other console ever offered, I reckon (I have counted 20 already) and some are absolute must-haves. So, Wii sold to new gamers as well as to veterans, who probably own more than one console anyway. And it has been smooth sailing for Nintendo up until now, with Wii selling about as many units as the two competitors put together.

Microsoft seemed to endlessly tweak the SKU variety of their Xbox360 as well as their price. And, leaving the elusive fun factor aside, the 360 has been the best value proposition by far for a long time. But even this circumstance could not change the reality that is each companies' respective market share. Sure, Nintendo has hit dry spells in the past, with other consoles selling more units for a few months in one territory or another. But these dips were usually related to a lighter release calendar. When bigger titles drew nearer, sales rose again.

Software no longer moves hardware

Not anymore, it seems. The news of Wii hardware sales taking a 30 percent dip in the US last month despite the release of ´Wii Sports Resort´ should have Nintendo worried. Very worried, in my opinion. Because the title should move hardware as much as any other Nintendo game. A gigantic marketing campaign in the US should have made sure that the consumers were aware of the release. The fact that it did not move a significant amount of hardware can only really mean one thing: everyone that wanted to buy a Wii in the said territory has bought one. If a title like ´Wii Sports Resort´ cannot invigorate sales, then no title can (at least not of Nintendo's casual variety, which undoubtedly was the backbone of the console's success). The only option available to Nintendo of America may be a price drop. This would surely convince more people to hop on the Wii bandwagon. But software no longer seems to move hardware.

Upcoming games to disappoint

First, a little reality check: Am I being unfair here? Of course, all the other consoles sold badly in July. Well, yes. But the PS3 only took a 25 percent dip and the 360 went down a mere 15 points, only half of the Wii's loss. That is a significant difference. But what about other territories? In Japan, year-to-date year-over-year changes show big losses for the console. Europe may be the Wii's last resort (this is actually a double pun, if you remember an obscure PC game from 1996) but a worldwide downward trend is becoming clearer and clearer, it seems.

But what about other upcoming titles, particularly the third party portfolio, which is still a sore spot for Wii owners? Surely, exclusive titles like ´Monster Hunter Tri´ or ´Red Steel 2´ will sell hardware to the traditional crowd, if the more casual titles now fail to shift consoles. Unfortunately, I have it on good authority that both of these highly anticipated games will not deliver. They may look nice, but both titles are being rushed out of the door. Wii owners will have a few good survival horror titles to mull over. But there is no shortage of those on the platforms. So a ´Dead Space Extraction´, no matter how good it will be, will not become the killer app that a polished ´Monster Hunter Tri´ could have become.

Price cut the only solution

Especially with the PlayStation3's price drop and sleeker re-design, as well as motion control around the corner for both high definition consoles, Nintendo is coming under intense pressure this generation for the very first time. The only way out seems to be a price cut, preferably to be announced around Tokyo Game Show next month (though Nintendo will not exhibit, as always). I do not see any alternative for Nintendo (and I am not alone with this opinion), if they want to maintain the impressive momentum they have exhibited so far. This is the curse of a runaway success: maintaining it. After all, a boom, in economics, is a highly unstable and volatile state. And if they do not re-position the Wii's price point, Nintendo may soon find out the hard way.

EDIT Looks like I was spot on with my analysis. The following image was published by Kotaku. It may be fake, of course. But both the timing and extent of the price cut would fit perfectly, so I believe it is legit.


Source: Joystiq, Joystiq, Chart Get! Chart Get!
Thanks to: Some German Guy

E3 2009: Microsoft challenging Nintendo, Sony finished

So, the three press briefings have come and gone. What remains? Quite obviously, Microsoft had the biggest surprise in store for us. Project Natal is certainly ambitious and may serve to position the Xbox360 quite differently in terms of target demographic. Nintendo, while briefly showing that odd finger sensor had almost no surprises when it comes to hardware. Team Ninja working on a new Metroid game was the big news of the briefing and it is hard to exaggerate the ramifications of this collaboration, given Nintendo’s poor track record with third party developers in the past.

Immediately, arguments ensued over whether Xbox360’s Natal or Wii’s Motion Plus will be the more accurate system. But that appears to be an academic debate. The big question in my mind is: where does that leave Sony? The truly gargantuan sales figures of a ´Brain Age´ and a ´Wii Fit´ clearly show where the gaming mainstream has shifted to (or rather, where the new mainstream has been discovered). This is precisely where Nintendo is positioned and it clearly is where Microsoft would like to be with Natal. Sony, however, will have nothing to offer this new mainstream. If they really are working on a Wiimote-like controller themselves, they will show it no earlier than E3 2010 and it will launch no earlier than 2011. This will be too late for this generation because, in my mind, by 2011, Microsoft and Nintendo will be talking about their successor consoles. And with the next generation of consoles, no one will care about a PS3 peripheral.

It seems quite obvious that the PlayStation3 will be falling behind even further, after the E3 announcements. While mainstream gaming has shifted (and opened up to millions new gamers in the process), Sony has remained where the mainstream used to be. Of course, ´God of War III´ will be a spectacular game. But, in terms of sales figures, it will be a niche product and fail to move substantial amounts of hardware. Especially given that Sony boss Stringer will not allow a price cut until Christmas at the earliest. I am absolutely sure: Sony will remain in third place for this generation and I am even less optimistic about Sony’s progress in the next console cycle.

EDIT I stand corrected. Sony did show motion controls other than the Sixaxis. I was unable to watch the Sony conference and really had not seen the motion control section in Joystiq’s live transcription. Sorry. Thanks to Some Guy for pointing out my mistake.

It is interesting to note that I wrote about the patent most likely implicated by this technology back in 2005 and I even tried out a similar prototype at the 2001 ECTS, London’s former videogame expo. There, a webcam connected to the PlayStation2 was tuned to certain bright colours and had the dimensions of various tools and weapons stored in memory. Holding a brightly coloured plastic sword or mace, the console could estimate a 3D position based on the object’s dimensions by comparing them to the actual view in perspective. This way, the same weapon was replicated in the game and moved almost in real-time to my movements. Considering this was fake 3D – since the console only estimated a spatial position based on the distorted perspective of a 2D image – it worked pretty well. It seems to me that the demo shown at the Sony conference was almost the same technology and will work the same way.

However, even if the technology shown will be available next year and works well, it is still no comparison to Nintendo’s and Microsoft’s real 3D motion controls. The only advantage is that Sony’s approach should work with a standard webcam, which will make it the cheapest of the three. But the experience may be less immersive, too. So I stand by my initial judgement: Microsoft may be successfully moving on what now is Nintendo’s turf – the new mainstream – but Sony will most likely fail to catch up.

Telecommunications giant behind ´ZuneX´ fake

The ´ZuneX´ rumour I recently reported about is a fake, I can exclusively reveal. It is an interesting fake, though, since it is perpetuated by German telecommunications giant and multinational corporation Deutsche Telekom AG, Europe's largest according to Wikipedia.




The German gaming site who posted the various ´ZuneX´ images, Mimbee, notes in their imprint that they are part of the Telekom's network. The Whois information for the domain confirm this. While I found it hard to believe that a multinational corporation would be behind such a fake, my research revealed that the gaming site is not even an outside commission job, but an in-house development. Apparently, their reasons for the stunt have nothing to do with hunting down cheap clicks, though, as a member of staff wrote to me in an email. Above everything else, it was meant to be satirical, they claimed.

I replied, voicing concern that a large corporation has joined the ranks of fifteen year-olds in their parents' basement by devising and perpetuating such a relatively elaborate fake. Their reply, again, contained no apology.

To this day, the site has not come clean on the fake. Quite the contrary. In a recent entry, the Telekom bragged about the reach of the story, including mentions in the Playboy, Yahoo, Boing Boing and various reputable gaming news sites.





In my mind, this episode is nothing more than a cheap attempt at getting clicks. It is flawed viral marketing by another multinational (remember Sony's attempt) and it will most likely become equally successful. And, for those people who know what the term means, that last comment was meant to be satirical.

It's one thing to have to debunk teenagers. It's quite another thing when someone like the Deutsche Telekom is leading you on, in a desperate hunt for page impressions.

EDIT You can read the original story in German over on my newsroom's blog.

Image Source: Sol.de

Microsoft to enter handheld market?

Microsoft will announce a handheld gaming console at the E3 next month according to substantial rumours by Mimbee, a previously unknown German gaming site.

The rumour concerns ´ZuneX´, a Zune media player which doubles as a gaming console. Its alleged features include obviously dedicated software, as well as compatibility with Xbox Live Arcade and the recently announced cloud gaming service OnLive. It is said to feature MicroSD and SIM card slots, making at least some mobile phone functions likely.

Its tech specs are comparable to the original Xbox, at least in parts. The news site has since published a wealth of images, including a product shot, logo, a snapshot of a presentation, a snapshot of a hands-on session and five detail shots of a product sheet showing tech specs.












Of course, we need to ask the question whether the above images are real or just an elaborate fake. In my mind, ZX-1000 is too close a product code to the PSP. But that is nothing more than a hunch. There are further reasons to believe that the images are fake.

On the third image showing tech specs, under the heading ´Input´, there is the entry ´Customizable controlls´. A spelling mistake like this one is highly unlikely on a legitimate document of this type.

Also, an alleged Microsoft Office Twitter account is cited in the story which stated that "June 2009 will be an important month for Zune lovers" and later added: "New product launch, that's all I'm allowed to say. Hold off from buying an iPhone/Pre. :)"

This appears to be a mistake, though. The official Microsoft Twitter account in question is this one, as the above user admitted himself.

What is certain is that a German Xbox representative twittered: "As of today, I am really pissed that I'm not going to be at E3. Unfortunately, I can only say more on June 2nd." This could be entirely unrelated to the above rumour, though.




I was initially swayed to believe that the images were real. But the fact that the Twitter account is not an official Microsoft one makes them far less credible. The website also cannot be traced back to reliable Whois information. They claim to be a gaming site run by German telecommunications giant Deutsche Telekom AG. Given the very colloquial style of the site, I find this highly doubtful. T-Online's gaming site really does link to the site but calls it "a satirical video blog." Of course, I will investigate this further next week.

Finally, a spelling mistake in documents such as above is only a subtle indicator, but it makes me even more sceptical. I myself believe that the story is fake. What do you think? Do you find any other clues in the material above? Please share your thoughts in the comments section.

EDIT There is a similar rumour about a revised Zune player codenamed "xYz", which is described as a "digital entertainment handheld". TeamXbox claims to have learned about the device from several inside sources.

Apparently, the device "sits somewhere in-between the Xbox and Zune platforms, offering both gaming and media playback, as well as Internet-related services, all in a portable format." The codename "xYz" is meant to symbolize that the device will act as a catalyst between those two platforms, Xbox and Zune.

Another source consulted for this story confirmed the development of such mobile device, at least as of December of last year. This source defined the Microsoft handheld as “unlike anything on the market today,” and said that the only way to describe it is to “think of a mashup of the Sony Mylo, the PSP, and the iPhone… errr, the iPod Touch; [the MS handheld] doesn’t need access to a phone network.” That last sentence was one of the juiciest comments made, since the source wanted to emphasize this device lacks access to a phone network and that’s why he changed the iPhone example with the iPod Touch.

Even if several analysts and publications have reported that Microsoft is planning to market its own smartphone, this second source told me not to expect any business application or user interface (UI) that resembles a smartphone. Furthermore, the source stressed:

“Although the Microsoft handheld is definitely a converged device, this is not a Zune Phone.” The source added: “Microsoft won’t compete with its Windows Mobile customers.”

There is far more information in the article itself, so head on over.

With the source and the article oozing journalistic integrity and, as such, reliability, this rumour appears far more credible to me than the one above. I have also been told by someone working directly for one of the current two handheld manufacturers that the spec sheet of the alleged ´ZuneX´ looks highly unusual.

EDIT I can exclusively reveal that the entire ´ZuneX´ rumour and concerned documents are fake. For more, intriguing details please read my next post.

Source: Mimbee
Thanks to: Gameswelt (German)
Image Source: Sol.de

Nibris subsidiary Bloober Team emerges

Bloober Team, the subsidiary studio of Poland-based ´Sadness´ developer Nibris has finally launched their website, announcing three new games and dishing out information on their various in-house graphics engines.




For a start, Bloober Team claims to be an approved developer by both Nintendo and Sony, currently seeking Microsoft approval. The studio also claims to be developing four titles and has apparently developed two graphics engines.

Games
´Last Flight´ (WiiWare); development status: demo ready
´Troopies series´ (Xbox360, WiiWare, PSP); development status: early stage of production
´Engineering an Empire: Egypt´ (DS, PSP, PC); development status: unknown
Undisclosed RPG project (Xbox360, WiiWare); development status: preproduction

Engines
´Cross Engine´ (Wii, PC, with Xbox360 and PSP support by the end of the year)
´Black Horse engine´ (DS)

No screenshots are available on the site. Instead, the studio shows three pieces of artwork for ´Last Flight´. Here is one of them:




Interestingly enough, the website seems to make no mention of parent studio Nibris, although some images are shared between the websites and Nibris links to Bloober as a "befriended studio".

While the site looks professional, it also contains some spelling mistakes and awkward use of English.

It seems also worthy of note that the studio appears to concentrate solely on digital distribution. It seems that they will not release any games on physical media.




I know some of have been waiting for my in-depth analysis of Nibris for some time. While I must apologize for the time it took me so far, it is coming along and will be published as soon my little son gives me some time off. I estimate that it should be done within the next four weeks.

Source: Bloober Team

´Metal Gear Solid 4´ no longer PS3 exclusive?, part VIII

Hideo Kojima is hinting at a new installment in the ´Metal Gear´ series, possibly on Xbox360, via this teaser site. It contains a flash animation that apparently features the Xbox360's ring of light, pictured below the screengrab for comparison:





Alternatively, the small caps letter ´i´ could hint at a whole number of other platforms: the iPhone, the DSi and the Wii. The exclamation mark is part of the ´Metal Gear Acid´ logo, but could also reference the MGS series symbol for being discovered by the enemy. A reference to ´Metal Gear Acid´ is unlikely since the directory the teaser animation is in reads ´MGST´. This strongly suggests a ´Metal Gear Solid´ title, perhaps with a subtitle beginning with the letter ´T´.

Only in mid-October, a Konami spokesperson confirmed: "We're actively looking into a [Metal Gear Solid 4] release for the Xbox 360" in a Japanese magazine. Shortly afterwards, the journal removed the quote from the article.

Speaking to Eurogamer in late August, the series' creator Hideo Kojima tried to dispel the rumours about an Xbox360 version and wished people would stop asking.

Because MGS4 was optimised for the PS3 it is probably not possible. But, you know, what kind of disturbs me sometimes, because a lot of people ask me about this PS3/360 question, is that it's not about the hardware - I want people to look at the game itself. Sometimes I even feel like it should be on a PC so that people don't ask me about hardware and platforms.

Still, Kojima himself hinted at an Xbox360 version. Many industry experts, myself included, have taken the non-exclusivity for granted. The PlayStation3's poor hardware sales and the game's staggering budget simply do not make an unlimited exclusivity a viable option from an economic point of view. And there were plenty of indicators that an Xbox360 version was already in the works. Here is another updated rundown of all the other hints and rumours regarding this debate from day one.

---

Part I, October 2006

Electronic Gaming Monthly tease readers with the headline ´Metal Gear Solid 4 on Xbox 360?´ on the magazine´s cover.

However, on the NeoGAF forums, former EGM editor Che Chou seeks to squash the rumours.

It's simply a rumor that Konami higher-ups are pressuring Kojima Productions to consider making MGS4 a multiplatform game because production costs on the game are unsurprisingly high and only getting higher. With PS3 install base numbers not looking all that rosy due to console cost and manufacturing problems, Konami is scared they can't recoup their investment on only 1 platform alone.

---

Part II, December 2006

On his blog, industry insider Daniel Boutros claims that an Xbox360 version of MGS4 has been confirmed behind closed doors.

It's coming a few months later than the PS3 game, but it's happening folks.

This is said to be because publishers - including Konami - don't believe there'll be enough PS3s out there by the time the game hits because of the blu ray diode failure issues. (...)

---

Part III, January 2007

Speaking to GamePro, Hideo Kojima himself says that ´MGS4 is actually for the PS3 only,´ adding a significant ´so far´.

If I say too much, Mr. Kutaragi might get really upset. I think that the PS3 is difficult to work with, but so was the PS2. (...)

I do have strong interest in creating something for the Xbox 360. In the US and Europe, it is selling, and I think it will sell a lot this year as well. I'm a fan of Gears of War as well, it's very interesting.

Frankly speaking, I want to create something on the PC. It's a multi-platform [format]. I've been regularly studying work on the PC anyways, and I want to provide something as a world-wide platform because of the consequences with timing on the PlayStation platforms, MGS4 is actually for the PS3 only so far.

---

Part IV, April 2007

The VG Resource Center claims to have received a statement by an anonymous source within Konami.

Yes, in fact, we are working on putting Metal Gear Solid 4 on the Xbox 360 and PC, which should both come out roughly 6 months after the PS3 release. However, we've been working with Microsoft so the 360 and PC versions will both take advantage of Xbox Live and Games for Windows Live, with such features as achievements and the ability for 360 and PC owners to play against each other in multiplayer.

---

Part V, May 2007

An alleged Microsoft employee writing for Destructoid confirms that the game will be released on Xbox360 no more than one year after the PlayStation3 version. The article reads:

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots will not be a PS3 exclusive after all. It has been confirmed that it will make its way to the Xbox 360 in 2008.

There is no true date set for the release at this point, but November of 2008 has been mentioned. This is not set in stone as Konami is working with Microsoft to bring the date forward as much as possible. (...) The announcement hasn't been officially made yet, but the source works for Konami, and I know for a fact that MS has been negotiating this for months.

The article has since been subjected to a ´Cease and Desist´ order.

---

Part VI, July 2007

A Reuters article cites Kazumi Kitaue, head of Konami's North American and European operations speaking about a multi-platform MGS4.

Kitaue said Konami may need to expand the target hardware for its blockbuster fighting game Metal Gear Solid, which has so far been developed for Sony's PlayStation machines, to other consoles in the future to recoup development costs.

"Since Metal Gear Solid was born for the PlayStation, we would like to keep it a PlayStation game. But we might have to take some steps," Kitaue said. (...)

Only days later, the Official Xbox Magazine claims a "bankable source" confirmed that the game would be coming to Xbox360 "a few months" after the PS3 version.

Soon after, music and videogame retailer HMV lists a PS3 and an Xbox360 version on its website, detailing 2008 release dates of April 18 and September 26, respectively, later claiming an "admin error".

---

Part VII, January 2008

Xbox site XboxFamily claimed to have been told about an Xbox360 version of ´Metal Gear Solid 4´ being in the works, citing an inside source with the game´s publisher.

Speaking to a Konami rep at an undisclosed distribution meeting, I was told, after a lot of nagging, that yes indeed MGS was in development for the 360. The rep stated that Metal Gear Solid will be released for the Xbox 360 between 12 to 14 months after the PS3 version hits shelves. This is not a rumor.

Only some months before, in a Reuters article published in late November, the game´s assistant producer Ryan Payton said the following about the publisher´s high expectations for the game.

Payton said the new "Metal Gear Solid" needs to sell over a million copies on the first day it goes on sale due to its costly production, but that may be a tough mark to hit given sluggish PS3 sales.

EDIT Here are some interesting theories by other media outlets, starting with the brand new Offworld, Boing Boing's gaming site.

Back in July, as many may have forgot, a French games blog suggested a rumor that Kojima Productions might have a December Surprise up its sleeve. December 12th, they said, six months after the release of the game (that length of time, players will note, fitting in nicely with the fiction of ´Metal Gear Solid 4´) might trigger an in-game event.

PC World (via Yahoo News) also has some interesting comments on this:

Since the colors are electric green on black, and since the symbol to the right looks an awful lot like the symbol in the middle of the power button on the face of the 360, it's not hard to see why.

On the other hand, it's actually just the universal power symbol, also known as IEC 5009 (which refers to "power" but alternatively to "standby" or both "power/standby") as well as IEEE 1621, where it refers explicitly to the "power control user interface." It's also on Apple laptops, Windows-based laptops, desktops, various other electronic devices, and if you look at the touch button on your PS3 -- yep, it's there too. That it's green may have some significance...or it may be a red herring. Hard to say.

EDIT Here is another interesting theory, courtesy of TVG, focussing on the inverted exclamation mark.

TVG has its own theory: MGS4 was released globally on the 12th of June (12/06). Invert that date like the exclamation point, and you get '06/12' – which is tomorrow.

So, is Konami finally confirming tomorrow that MGS4 will be heading to Microsoft as the last great third-party PlayStation exclusive to go multi-platform?

Sources: Konami, Joystiq, Joystiq, Eurogamer, Offworld, PC World (via Yahoo News)
Thanks to: Kolt, Kotaku, Kotaku

New website tracking videogame sales figures

There is a new website tracking videogame sales figures. Chart Get went online in late July and has already more than 150 posts on offer.

The blog is run by the NeoGAF forum regulars PantherLotus and JoshuaJSlone, the latter one introducing the site as follows.

For years I followed the monthly NPD sales data at GAF and participated in the conversations. Probably the farther back you go the more spinning you'll see from me. A pretty big Nintendo fan, I'm probably one of the guys talking about GameCube month-over-month percentage improvement and generally meaningless stuff like that. It was the launch of DS and PSP in Japan that took things to the next level, though. (...)

Panther's focus is on making beautiful static images to display the facts in a large number of ways, while mine is more on a limited but versatile set of tools that can show some quite interesting things if you ask it the right questions with the right parameters. As the guy who set up the tools, I'm in a particularly good position to know what can be asked and how to do so.

Both existing sites, VG Chartz and NexGen Wars, have attracted some criticism for apparently unreliable sources. Chart Get wants to do better, as they claim in their statement of intent.

1. Our data is real: Chart Get! only uses publicly available data produced by professional outside sources by qualified market research firms, like Media-Create, Famitsu, and the NPD unless otherwise specified. We do not pretend to conduct market research only to pass off others' data as our own. All in-house estimations and extrapolations will be clearly marked.

2. All data and charts are cited: Every chart posted on this site will be cited and sourced with the data's origin unless produced by an outside source which will be credited. Chart Get! will never use other's data and pass it off as original.

3. Opinions and Analyses will be labeled as such: While Chart Get! acknowledges that bias is a natural part of the human experience, it is the objectivity of cold, hard numbers that reveals truth. In that spirit the reader will be explicitly warned when entering the territory of analysis and/or opinion.

Whether they are tracking the DS versus PSP sales figures, listing Capcom's top sellers of all time or chalking up the worst selling Wii titles in their first week in Japan, the charts appear to be reliable, are well-presented and extremely informative.

Source: Chart Get

Wii tops European charts, but will third parties care?

Sales of Nintendo's Wii consoles and games are soaring to new heights in Europe, after the console established a clear lead in Japan and North America. In the United Kingdom, Nintendo has managed to sell 2,5 million Wii consoles over the last twelve months, GfK Chart Track reports (via Games Industry). The total UK sales look like this (up until September 2008):

Wii: 3,6 million units
Xbox360: 2,3 million units
PlayStation3: 1,4 million units

The Brits only just voted the Wii "Best Gaming Technology". If this sales trend continues, the Wii will become the UK's market leader by a long shot.

High Street retailer The Game Group (...) estimates that by Christmas the installed base for the Wii will reach 4.9 million units, the Xbox 360 2.8 million and the PS3 1.9 million units.

DS units are expected to climb a further 1.2 million to 8.3 million and the PSP to 3.1 million.

That would mean that by Christmas, there would be more Wii consoles in the UK than the other consoles combined.

Wii also dominates the European software charts. Here is the UK data for the week ending September 27:

---

United Kingdom

1. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (Wii, PS2, PSP, PS3, Xbox360, DS)
2. Wii Fit (Wii)
3. Mario Kart Wii (Wii)
4. Brothers In Arms: Hell’s Highway (PS3, Xbox360)
5. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 09 (Wii, Xbox360, PS3, PSP, PS2)
6. Pure (Xbox360, PS3, PC)
7. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii, PS2, PS3, Xbox360, PC)
8. Mercenaries 2: World in Flames (PS3, Xbox360, PS2, PC)
9. Lego Indiana Jones: Original Adventures (Wii, PS2, PS3, PSP, Xbox360, PC, DS)
10. Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning (PC)

---

Nintendo dominates the the German and Spanish software charts more clearly:

---

Germany

1. Mario Kart Wii (Wii)
2. Wii Fit (Wii)
3. Drakensang: The Dark Eye (PC)
4. Brain Training (DS)
5. Mario Kart (DS)
6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympics (DS)
7. Guitar Hero: On Tour (DS)
8. Super Smash Bros Brawl (Wii)
9. More Brain Training (DS)
10. Summer Athletics (DS)

---

Spain

1. Wii Fit (Wii)
2. Beijing 2008: The Olympic Games (PS3)
3. Wii Play (Wii)
4. Mario Kart Wii (Wii)
5. Buzz! Master Quiz (PSP)
6. Super Smash Bros Brawl (Wii)
7. Guitar Hero: On Tour (DS)
8. Cooking Guide: Can't Decide What to Eat? (DS)
9. Wall-E (DS)
10. Brain Training (DS)

---

On a sidenote, the Xbox360 has outsold the PS3 in Japan this week for four weeks running.




Third parties ignorant of Wii's success

Despite this overwhelming success, the perception of the console on the part of studios and publishers does not yet match up. Industry veterans like Doug Lombardi, spokesman for Valve (´Half Life´, ´Team Fortress´), still favour the Xbox360 among the three next-gen consoles. Lombardi spoke to CVG:

We got a 360 team together because it's really close to the PC and is shooter-friendly - the audience has been into shooters for years.

So it was natural for us to decide that the first console we develop for internally would be the 360. But now that we've got a strong 360 team we're starting to look at ways to expand out business.

It's much easier to take our games to the PS3, because of the horsepower of that hardware, than it is to the Wii because Wii is very different with its input devices and lower tech.

If we were going for the Wii we'd have to go for a whole new game that's designed for that platform. That's an expensive proposition and riskier than just getting some good PS3 developers on board.

It's something that we're still evaluating, but certainly the install base is the thing that rules all. If there's an opportunity there you've got to take it seriously.

The above comments do not even make real sense. Lombardi acknowledges that Wii is the clear market leader but prefers the Xbox360 and PS3 for their shooter friendly user base and their relative ease of porting over PC code. Wii games would have to be built from the ground up and this would be too large a financial risk, he notes, which is not true in the light of the phenomenal hardware sales. In the end, Lombardi even makes this very point, saying that "install base (...) rules all". Well, if it does, where's my ´Half Life 2´ on Wii? Where's my ´Portal´ on the console? I have been thinking about crowbar shells for the Wiimote ever since the controller was announced.

Lomardi's confused comments resonate with what Epic's Mark Rein said last October: "the big software dollars right now are being earned on Xbox360", adding that Wii would only be attractive insofar as a company could sell their engine directly to Nintendo.

First party success keeps third parties away

Of course, the main reason why publishers are hesitant is that Nintendo is not just the market leader in terms of hardware, it is also the world's top software publisher (considering annual turnover, number of releases, average review score, an anonymous reputation survey, and detailed feedback from business partners). Having to compete with Mario, Link and Pokèmon is a huge deterrent for third parties.

Mature titles to turn the tide

But what will it take to change the industry minds? My straight answer is that the Wii has huge economic potential for third parties when it comes to mature games. I have argued before that the public and industry perception of the Wii platform is bound to change soon with a wealth of horror and other mature titles coming out. And Nintendo is not capitalizing on this software segment at all, currently leaving it largely up to Capcom and SEGA to fill the void.

A grand economic success of titles like ´The Conduit´, ´House of the Dead: Overkill´ or ´MadWorld´ will surely become examples the entire industry will follow. On the other hand, if these titles sell poorly, the Wii will get less and less mature titles and will become a casual console. The former scenario is the most likely, though, I believe.

EDIT Nintendo has addressed this very problem at a special showcase event where the company showed off its upcoming software lineup, both first and third party. Among the titles presented to the press were High Voltage Software's ´The Conduit´, ´Call of Duty: World at War´, ´Dead Rising: Chop til you Drop´ and ´MadWorld´, as Agence France Press (AFP) reports (via Yahoo news).

High Voltage was part of a cadre of studios that joined Nintendo in San Francisco on Friday to demonstrate that the Wii's motion-sensing controllers can simulate guns and swords as well as golf clubs and orchestra batons. (...)

"No matter what you hear, we also believe in games that please the core," Nintendo marketing chief Cammie Dunaway said during a two-day event focused on Wii games heading for store shelves in coming months. (...)

Wii has been referred to as the "other system" gamers buy as a lightweight option to heavyweight Sony Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 consoles.

"It's up to us as publishers to show what is wrong with those stigmas," Jason Allen of CapCom said, noting each of the competing videogame consoles gets unfairly pigeon-holed. (...)

"Nintendo loves hardcore gamers; we really do," Nintendo spokesman Charlie Scibetta told AFP.

"'Chop til you Drop' and 'MadWorld' might not be games for kids, but there are a lot of people out there that want a mature game experience. You can get that on the Wii."

Source: GfK Chart Track (via Games Industry), GameDaily, videogaming247, Games Industry, CVG, Gamasutra, AFP (via Yahoo news)
Thanks to: GameDaily