Friday, December 31, 2010

Looking ahead at 2011



Allow me to give you a brief glimpse of what 2011 will bring to this blog and videogames in general. ´Duke Nukem Forever´ will actually be released and kick off what will be a great year in gaming. The PlayStation phone will be announced. Soonafter, the 3DS will be launched and will undoubtedly sell like hotcakes, despite a hefty price tag of $249 and €249, respectively. Its success will convince the consumer electronics industry at large that autostereoscopic displays are the way forward. 2011 will definitely be a strong year for mobile gaming.

Do not expect any news about home consoles. No new consoles will be announced, for sure. Sony and Microsoft have just updated their hardware and will want to hedge their bets. What about these updates? I have always believed that Kinect will outsell Move because Move is too similar to the Wii controller. After playing with both long enough, I do not see Kinect games as having a lasting appeal, though. Give me ´Socom 4´ with Move any day. ´Kinect Adventures´ may be full of great and original ideas. But this type of game seems to be the only type available and the Wii cornered this market four years ago.

Almost every Kinect hack out there seems to have more appeal than the actual games. Of course, Microsoft will want to push Kinect in 2011 by churning out great software for it. But remember that they chose to drop an internal chip which leaves the actual console with the additional calculations. Analysts have not been sure whether this will affect performance in a noticable way, but this point may explain why we have not yet seen a ´Gears of War´ type game working with Kinect and, perhaps, never will. What commentators have been sure about is the additional lag the system is burdened with, as a result. And even leaving this point aside, I am still sceptical of the hardware (I am sceptical of any entertainment product that actually tells me to move my furniture before I start playing) because I simply have not had very satisfactory playing experiences in general.

Move already has a far more diverse portfolio and this should make Move sell far better than Kinect in 2011. But Move will not become a system seller for the console. Nintendo took a huge gamble by including motion controls in the console and, pretty much, forcing developers to incorporate it into all games. But by doing so, they did not fragment the user base further.

A PS3 or Xbox developer has to consider that the number of motion control interfaces sold for either platform is only a small fraction of each console's total hardware base. Why develop only for a few million potential customers when you could be developing for a few dozen - at less cost to boot? Kinect and Move will both sell in 2011 (with Move outselling Kinect, I believe) but both will never be truly successful. Neither hardware will play a significant role come 2012.

Nintendo will reduce the Wii's price tag in 2011 and be awarded by another and much needed sales spike. The 3DS will have some nifty ways of being hooked up to a Wii, I expect, and this interoperability will further help the home console's sales somewhat. I stand by my year-old prediction that the Wii will remain market leader this generation. PS3 and Xbox will outsell the Wii for much of 2011 (Nintendo will reduce the price in the late second half and then significantly, I believe) but they will not come close to the Wii's life-to-date sales.

What will 2011 bring to this blog? First of all, the year will start with a redesign and a new focus. I will publish everything from mammoth articles to short notices to reduce the wait and accomodate my increasingly hefty professional workload. And, of course, I will finally publish that Nibris article soon, which I believe will be very worthwhile. Like the one on Crossbeam Studios, I also expect this one to have swift and far-reaching consequences. The main reason for it still not being online is that hardly anyone wants to talk about Nibris. Even the founders do not want to talk about it, it seems. I have not yet received a reply to my interview questions via mail.

And, finally, what will 2011 hold in store for me? Well, I very much hope to be able to share some great and interesting news with you very soon, regarding my professional future. Last year, I already broadened my horizon significantly by co-hosting the European Innovative Games Award in Frankfurt. This year, I will be able to share a new and exciting project with you, if everything goes well. As 2010 ends, though, I would like to thank each and every one of you for continued support of this blog. I realise that updates have been far too rare of late but I promise you that 2011 will be different. Have a good one ushering in the new year. 2011 will be a blast.

42 comments:

Grandmaster B said...

Thanks will look forward to more articles in 2011 from u :)

I havent touch my Wii in quite a while and played PS3 instead. Wii game lineup just isnt there for me and I hope 3rd party developers get on board for traditional type of games when Nintendos next system comes about.

I predict next year Nintendo will announce their successor to the Wii. HD definitely since its so mainstream now and Nintendo played their cards correctly, the timing was not right as much as Sony and MS liked us to believe...biz feasibility wise.

I applaud Nintendo for their effort but I had to get a PS3 to stay in touch with some gaming that was more appealing to me in 2010. Wii had the occassional game.

Grandmaster B said...

Next year meaning 2012

Falafelkid said...

Hi Grandmaster. Once again, thanks ever so much for your great contributions. And thanks for clarifying which year you meant. I absolutely agree: Nintendo will announce the Wii successor in 2012. We already know it will be 3D capable and third party support will be stronger, much like the strategy evident with the 3DS.

And you are also quite right that a Wii by itself is hardly sufficient for console gaming. Then again, no console is sufficient this generation. Most people have chosen the Wii and one of the HD consoles, which I also view as the ideal combination. As far as individual games are concerned, I again recommend ´GoldenEye´. Also, ´Indiana Jones and the Staff of Kings´ is a game that was surprisingly good (especially the inclusion of ´Fate of Atlantis´. I will suggest more titles when I have more time.

Grandmaster B said...

I do have some of the games but have been lazy to even look at them in the holidays.

Indiana Jones is good? Indy and the fate of atlantis is one of my all time favourite games out of any system. I was unaware of this inclusion!

And you are right about all consoles. PS3 was fine at first but is a bit bla bla and movies have taken most of my free time these days. Been getting enjoyment out of Bluray and my projector on a 100" screen. Gaming is also awesome on it :)

Anonymous said...

hello guys!
yes i think too that 2011 will be a great year for nintendo, looking forward to the 3ds.
but i don t think that there will be a wii2 in 2012.
i think there will be an important add-on in the end of the year 2011, so this year. why? cause the wii is the home-console, and they wouldn t concentrate only in the 3ds, and they know that ms + sony have the best chances now to grow with their console. so they have to react this year. and in a lot of interviews ninti always told, that there won t be a wii 2 in a long time and that the wii will have still potential.
3d yes, but without tv ( like ps3). they told already that there are not enough people yet who have a 3d tv, ans its quiet expensive.
years ago nintendo told that they want to have a machine, without the need of tv. i think the 3ds is still the beginning.
imagine an special screen for wii
with 3d without glasses.the technique is ready ( for ex. : www.poc.com)
imagine to touch an 3d- object with the remote!
... sometimes dreams will come true ;)
sebastian

Anonymous said...

2011= 3DS TOTAL DOMINATION AND DIEING MOVE/KINECT SALES TO THINK ANYTHING ELSE IS INSANITY.....

WII HAS WON CALANDER YEAR 2010 GLOBAL SALES AND IS STILL NUMBER 1 IN JAPAN KINECT/MOVE FAILED TO STOP WII'S GLOBAL LEAD EXPANDING EVEN FURTHER 3DS WILL HELP NINTENDO TO EVEN GREATER DOMINATION AND THE BIGGEST GROUTH NEXT YEAR WILL BE 3DS SOFTWARE

DS CONTINUES TO PROVE THE SMARTPHONE MYTH AS JUST THAT MYTH AS IT DOMINATES GLOBALLY AT CHRISTMAS AND MICROSOFTS LAST STAB AT IT FAILS HARD

AS MOVE AND KINECT GAIN AROUND 5 MILLION COMBINED SALES WII REMOTE NEARS 100 MILLION IN USA ALONE AND 3DS THE ONLY GLASSES FREE GAMING DEVICE IN EXISTENCE WILL ONLY SEAL NINTENDO AS THE RULING FORCE IN GAMING

PSP PHONE WILL FLOP ALONG SIDE MOVE/KINECT AND 3DS WILL BE THE MUST HAVE DEVICE OF 2011

2011 WILL SEE MICROSOFT AND SONY SINK DEEPER INTO THE OBYS AS 3DS WII DSI AND DS DOMINATE GAMING GLOBALLY

Anonymous said...

kinect 500 million campain has resulted in wii total sales leader 2010 so nothing has changed DS still dominates handheld sales so iphone LIES are exposed as just that 3DS will totally dominate next year..

both kinect and move have failed as wii world wide user base continues to grow away and ahead of x360/ps3 kinect has died in japan as the x360 already has move failed to sell a poor 1 million shipped in all american continant including mexico and south america...

x360 continues to flop in all non english speaking countrys and has only continued to sell in usa and uk ,ps3 failed to top wii in japan as wiis total numbers beat ps3 and x360 and already had a userbase more than twice that of ps3

wii and DS were uks bestbselling systems this xmas and x360 with a huge kinect spend managed to come 3rd behind wii and DS ps3 sales were far far behind as expected by normal people!!!

wii and ds dominated holiday sales GLOBALLY x360 had a slight edge on wii but DS continued to kick all ass in usa taking x360s 50% failrate and millions of banned consoles even with this kinect hype wii numbers continued to pull ahead unchalenged move/kinect failed to beat wii and wiis lead CONTINUES TO WIDEN NOT SHRINK as reported by FRAUDS....

wii/ds/dsi/3ds will dominate 2011 psp is dead and x360 struggles vs ps3 so HD twins continue to eat each other alive as wii continues to dominate and DS sales only continue strongly unchalenged

3DS will be 2011's best selling system followed by wii x360/ps3 will fightbfor 3rd place...

Fook said...

Great idea with the smaller news and bigger articles! Bin following you since way back in 2004, when you hunted down bad revolution bloggs! Keep it up! Soon the rumours on "wii2" will flourish and it will be great to follow :)

Grandmaster B said...

To the anonymous below my comment.

We meant Wii successor announcement, not being released in 2012, even though its a possibility but I think would come in 2013 if not earlier.

Anonymous said...

wii 2 possible end 2012 witch would follow the ds to wii release time line

wii 2 heptic feedback controllers maybe

jerry said...

Looking forward to reading that Nibris article and whatever else you post here. Keep up the good work falafelkid.

Falafelkid said...

Hi everyone. Hi Grandmaster.

Yes, ´Staff of Kings´ contains the full talkie version of ´Fate of Atlantis´, which unlocks very early into the main game. Like yourself, I absolutely loved that adventure. So I just played the old game and finished it within a few days. That is worth the purchase alone. Mind you, I picked it up at a mere €10.

What else can I recommend? Well, it won't be news to you that ´Super Mario Galaxy 2´ is a must-have. It's very pretty and well designed, but it's also rock-hard at times. So it's more of a hardcore title, really. Speaking of which, the Wii version of ´Call of Duty: Black Ops´ is actually a decent port and fun to play with the Wiimote (until you can play it with Move support on PS3, so you get the best of both worlds).

I have also started playing with the ´uDraw´ tablet, which I sort of exclusively hinted at in a very cryptic kind of way. My first impression is that it really is a great peripheral with much potential. But, I guess, a tablet peripheral might not be everyone's ballgame.

Right, cannot think of any more games right now, I am afraid. My son has been keeping us up most of the night and I am absolutely knackered.

Anonymous said...

move doesnt compare to wii at fps controls 1,LAG..... 2,REPEATED CONSTENT RE-CALIBRATION......3,CAMERA LIGHT INTERFERENCE.....

and who plays ps3 COD on move NO ONE HAS GOT IT less people have move than people have COD on ps3 so why would they develop for it

wii cod is more than FUN its correct and NEXT-GEN fps its persision and its mouse like it destroys ps3/x360 pads it also helps humanize fps games this is something that needs to happen so FPS can evolve

Anonymous said...

i dont fancy playing cod with move everytime i light up a joint the move controller has a stroke NO THANKS

Anonymous said...

KINECT=RED RING OF DEATH this is sooooooooo beyond funny

WAKE-UP MICROSOFT IS SCREWING YOU OVER TO FAKE FUTURE SALES/USERBASE NUMBERS

wake the hell up sony and microsoft are dead as gaming companys

Falafelkid said...

Did I mention Call of Duty? I was talking about SOCOM4 with Move. That plays really well.

Oh, and Epic Mickey Looks like a fantastic title after playing an hour yesterday.

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