Thursday, February 22, 2007

A Wii in every third household by 2011, analyst predicts



An analyst with Merrill Lynch has predicted that by 2011 30% of US households will own a Wii, 33% for Japan, Next Generation reports.

The prediction comes in the aftermath of extraordinary results for Nintendo’s console, outselling all competitors in North America and Japan, and riding high in Europe prior to PS3's introduction there.

Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, made the prediction following news that Wii had captured a 68% share of the Japanese next-gen market last month, selling over 400,000 units against 150,000 units for PS3. In the U.S, Wii outsold PS3 by 436K to 244K, although, of course, PS3 is still out-billing Wii on a dollar basis.


EDIT I have done some thinking about this prediction - and it may turn out not so great, after all. The predicted sales would be very good, but they might not be excellent, depending on the performance of the other consoles.

There is a total of 100 million households in the States, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. So the analyst means to say that Nintendo will sell around 30 million consoles in the US within the next five years. That would make for an average of six million consoles sold in the country each year, which equals to the success the Xbox360 has had so far.

To assess what the analyst really was thinking, it would be vital to know his opinion on the other two consoles and their respective sales estimates.


Source: Next Generation

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

"So sag was hast du zu bieten außer Intrigen" IALS?

Ge kid?

:)

Anonymous said...

OH MY GOD !!!! THIS BLOG STILL EXISTS !!!????? WHAT"S UP FALLAFEL WHERE THAT BIG SECRET MWAHAHAHAHAH

used cisco said...

This is very bold prediction. I remember not so long ago the predictions put the Wii at something like 11 million by 2010 or something like that. I would love to see the contradictions in the prelaunch guesstimates and the post launch. What a difference. Viva la Wii!

Anonymous said...

Heute so, morgen so. Was die Videospielindustrie betrifft sind Analysten furchtbar unzuverlässig.
Vor ein paar Monaten hat man sich bei Lynch auch noch ganz anders zum Wii geäußert wenn ich mich nicht irre.

Hey Falafel, bring mal lieber was über das Interview mit Suda 51 auf ign. No More Heroes kann definitiv ein bisschen mehr Hype vertragen, das wird sicherlich eines der besten Spiele des Jahres (oder des nächsten Jahres...). Ein exklusives third party Spiel wie NMH ist genau das was das Wii braucht.Es wäre wirklich eine Schande wenn sich Mittelmaß (Sonic, Red Steel) und Umsetzungen alter Spiele (Scarface, Godfather, Driver) wegen ihrer "großen Namen" besser verkaufen würden. Leider sind Spiele mit echtem künstlerischem Anspruch ja eher selten erfolgreich (ico, SotC, Okami, Killer 7, Electroplancton,Odama).

Grandmaster B said...

Anonymous said...
OH MY GOD !!!! THIS BLOG STILL EXISTS !!!????? WHAT"S UP FALLAFEL WHERE THAT BIG SECRET MWAHAHAHAHAH


Fal and neither of us are blind. We read what you said the first time you moron.

Anonymous said...

Hey Falafelkid, don't you agree that SSX Blur is the first passable looking Wii game ?

Falafelkid said...

Hi Anonym.

Don't you agree that SSX Blur is the first passable looking Wii game ?

Not at all. Discounting Zelda, the first real looker in the Wii library is ´Excite Truck´. Just got it yesterday (Europe did not get it at launch) and it can easily hold its own against ´Motorstorm´.

Anonymous said...

breaking news breaking news breaking news


ALL E.U PS3S TO HAVE LIMITED BACKWARD COMPATABILLITY YES SONY CONFIRMED EU PS3S WONT PLAY ANYTHING LIKE THE AMOUNT OF PS1 PS2 GAMES JAP AND USA SPEC PS3S WILL SONY HAVE LIED AGAIN PS3 HAS ISSUES AND STRUGGLES TO SUPPORT BACKWARD PLAY

Falafelkid said...

Hi Anonym.

Thanks for the comments. If you would like to read more, the story originated on GamesIndustry.biz.

Anonymous said...

Oh I forgot about that one Falafelkid..Excite Truck is no slouch, of course.

But thank you for awnsering for once!

IALS :)

Falafelkid said...

In relation to my last post, analyst firm Screen Digest sees the PS3 winning the console war by 2010 with the Wii coming in third.

Anonymous said...

Hey Falafelkid,

I just wanted to say..you know..I always hear you talking about anylyst predictions and the like...but see I have been a gamer for a long long time and have always kept an eye on the scene.

So whithout beating about the bush for too long...

I would strongly suggest you to look/talk more about the games that come out than anylyst predictions and whatnot for they simply tell much more about the future success of Wii than analysts (who are often out of touch with gamers preferences) could ever hope for.

It's the games that decide about the fate of a console. I don't know, but it seems too me at timez as if you want to give people an uneccessary overly proffesional mature view at the industry.

You should really try to look more at the games than scales and such.
Again, at the end of the day the success of a console really depends on the games that grace it.

Line ups and such act much better as an indicator of future developments in the respective consoles' life cycles. They are simply much more telling.


-IALS

Grandmaster B said...

And you should stop gasbagging about graphics all the time IALS cause you sound like a shallow moron.

And I doubt it was you who posted/wrote that.

Anonymous said...

Grandmaster b you must be so deep in a place where the sun don't shine of Falafelkid

:)

Anonymous said...

falafelkid you are too cool for the world

Anonymous said...

What's with your postscript? Thirty million consoles in the U.S. would be huge, PS2-scale success. 30% is approximately the record high for adoption of the dominant console in NA. This analysis is predicting a BIG win, not a little one.

Anonymous said...

Little master B , you're the "MORON".

Anonymous said...

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Jonh Q said...

Nintendo Wii is doing much better that I ever thought!

Falafelkid said...

Hi Anonym.

What's with your postscript? Thirty million consoles in the U.S. would be huge, PS2-scale success. 30% is approximately the record high for adoption of the dominant console in NA. This analysis is predicting a BIG win, not a little one.

Thanks for your comments. I went over the content again - but my assessment holds: the prediction amounts to no more than the Xbox360´s success in the US so far. They have sold almost six million consoles in the US in their first year of availability. If they keep up that momentum until 2011, they will also achieve the mark of 30% of households.

Like I said, it´s a very good performance, but it cannot be isolated from what the analyst thinks about the other consoles.

Sebatians World said...

my guess is, that nintendo would sell 130 millions wii! ( or even more! )

why?

-cause the man of this blog was wright, he wrote in the past, that wii is going 3d !

there is still a last secret, and yes, it s a new art of how to see a game:

look at my blog to find it:

www.sebastians-world.blogspot.com!!

and to nintendo:

stop now playing the game with us, its time to show all the big secret!!

March 01, 2007 9:18 PM

superuser said...

Off-Topic:
Sony Blackballs Kotaku bc of rumored Playstation-Mii !!!

http://kotaku.com/gaming/top/sony-blackballs-kotaku-240860.php

Carmine "Cai" M. Red said...

Hey Falafelkid!

Do you have any opinion on the whole Playstation Home situation? Think you could do a post or speech on it maybe?

Basically Kotaku.com reported a rumor:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/sony/rumor-sony-to-unveil-playstation-home-240746.php

That got them blacklisted by Sony:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/top/sony-blackballs-kotaku-updated-240860.php

But they later made up because that was a real dumb move on Sony's part, but anyways the rumor is looking true due to this recently discovered trademark:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/sony/playstation-home-the-trademark-240868.php

So much has happened today! And I'm wondering what your opinion on this is, not just the journalism aspect but also how Sony is stealing Nintendo's Miis and Microsoft's Achievement points and doing the same thing by calling it Playstation Home!

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

GAME said...

I don't think so...it's not that good.

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wii repair said...

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