Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Looking forward to 2009



This is part two of my two part post, looking at the past year and the one ahead. In the first part below, I noted that North American and European review scores showed a lack of quality titles on Wii, but that Japanese reviews saw the console ahead.

I also argued that a lot of Western gamers keen on traditional games wrongly saw the Wii as carving its own niche, not realising that they themselves had become the niche and Nintendo's 'Touch Generations' titles now formed the mainstream of videogames.

Finally, I predicted that the sheer numbers of Wii consoles sold would convince third parties to both increase their Wii budgets and widen their portfolio to include more traditional games.

The sheer numbers

Starting our outlook with those numbers, the Thanksgiving weekend in the USA saw unprecedented sales of the hardware with 800.000 Wii consoles sold. In the entire month of November, more than two million units were sold.

Software sales were just as solid, as can be seen in the following statistics provided by Gamasutra. Up until October, four out of the five top-selling videogames in 2008 were Wii titles, all of them first party exclusives (not adding the Xbox360 and PS3 versions of 'Grand Theft Auto 4').


Top-selling videogames in 2008 (by unit sales, January through October)

1. 'Super Smash Bros. Brawl' (Wii): 3,5 million (estimated)
2. 'Mario Kart' (Wii): 3,4 million
3. 'Grand Theft Auto 4' (Xbox360): 3,2 million (estimated)
4. 'Wii Play' (Wii): 3,0 million
5. 'Wii Fit' (Wii): 2,8 million


In 2007, only two Wii titles made that list. The highest ranking one was 'Wii Play', making both lists. Also take into account that 'Wii Fit' is a premium title, bundled with hardware, and makes for significantly more revenue than games sold at a normal price.

Everybody's darling

It almost seems that Wii still is everybody's darling, with the possible exception of some Western gamers keen on traditional titles. Back in late 2006, Wii convinced the mainstream press right from the start. At the same time, a majority of developers randomly selected by Gamasutra personally preferred Wii over the PlayStation3. And this trend is continuing. TIME magazine voted ´Wii Fit´ one of their Top Ten Gadgets of 2008 while Forbes is feeling almost "sorry for Microsoft and Sony".


Nintendo's Christmas present to journalists in 2008: a Nintendo tree


Lastly, most industry analysts believe the Wii will continue to lead. NPD's industry analyst Anita Frazier believes that the console "really has incredible momentum heading into 2009" and especially notes the success of third party games like 'Guitar Hero World Tour'.

Many more Wii games will be announced soon, Michael Pachter, analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities, told Reuters (via Yahoo News).


To me, the big story is what happens on the Wii because it's the dominant platform, and it will be interesting to see how the publishers approach the Wii audience. (...)

There must be dozens of Wii games planned for holiday 2009 that we don't know about yet, and I think that many games will be designed to use the Wii Fit balance board that we haven't conceived of yet.


Big titles in 2009

But, of course, we know of many big titles slated for 2009 already. NeoGAF user BDGAME compiled a comprehensive list, too long to reprint here. Browsing through it, you will find a wealth of RPGs and survival horror games. So will those Western gamers keen on traditional titles I have been citing so much finally make their peace with Wii? Will Wii finally become the next great gamer's console?

I would not be surprised if one of the two games Hideo Kojima has in store was a Wii exclusive. After all, he said back in May 2006 that he would like to develop for the console.


As a game designer, I'm very interested in creating something for the Wii. I'd like to run away from MGS 4 creation and create something for the Wii but unfortunately, I don't have anything that I can announce at the moment. I have lots of ideas for Wii but I have a heavy schedule with MGS 4 and Metal Gear Online (...) If I created something for Wii, I would like to create something entirely different to a normal FPS. I don't mind using the MGS world as a theme but currently I'm not thinking about that. I'd like to give Wii users a new experience - I think the Wii controller can be used in more innovative and fun ways.


Tetsuya Mizuguchi ('Space Channel 5', 'Rez') is developing a Wii game. The announcement of 'Dragon Quest X' as a Wii exclusive is another huge step in that direction, as is, perhaps most of all, 'Monster Hunter 3'.

Originally announced as a PlayStation3 exclusive, the title was switched to Wii "due to high development cost of titles for PS3". British gaming magazine EDGE believes that this title will mark a turning point for the Nintendo console.


Many are hoping that Monster Hunter‭ ‬3‭ ‬will be a turning point for Wii in Japan.‭ ‬Not in terms of sales,‭ ‬but in terms of perceptions among Japanese consumers,‭ ‬who still look on PS2‭ ‬as the last great‭ ‘‬gamer’s console‭’‬.‭ ‬The huge popularity of the title during TGS,‭ ‬and the very favourable feedback Capcom has had from fans and the press,‭ ‬suggests it may just have a chance.


To me, titles like 'House of the Dead: Overkill', 'The Conduit' and 'MadWorld' will mark that turning point, certainly in the Western world (where such a shift is much more needed). Either way, I strongly believe that in 2009, we will see a significant shift in both the public's as well as publishers' perception of the Wii.

Naturally, this year will also see some of the strongest games released on the other two systems with 'Resident Evil 5', 'Alan Wake', 'Killzone II' and 'God of War III'. But I nevertheless believe that 2009 will become the year in which the Nintendo console rightfully takes on the legacy of the previous great gamer's consoles, such as the NES and the PlayStation2.

Sources: Games Industry, GameDaily, Gamasutra, Gamasutra, TIME, Forbes, GameDaily, Reuters (via Yahoo News), BDGAME, 1UP, CVG, TechRadar, Game|Life, Forbes, EDGE

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Awesome read!

I think there will be also at least one exklusive Resident Evil game for the Wii (I hope for a remake of RE 2). Also Valve, Take 2 and EA have made statements, that they will release important games on Wii - or at least can´t ignore the console. ;-)

Not to mention, that maybe the next Mario and/or Zelda will released during 2009. And I have big hopes for Red Steel 2. It seems like Ubisoft gives the title the development-time it needs.

btw. it´s God of War III

Falafelkid said...

Hi Raphael.

Thanks for your comments. Quite right, I did not mention the rumoured first party games slated for 2009. But I won't mind another Zelda, for sure ;)

Oh, and:

it´s God of War III

Oops, sorry! Got confused with Killzone II...

Chris Brind said...

Don't get me wrong, I love the Wii, and this is a great post and very reassuring for us Wii owners.

I don't own any other console, but recently I have been using PS3 at friends' houses and I have to say the graphics on the PS3 are just so much better, they really leave the Wii behind.

In fact, my wife and I are very fussy about the games we buy for the Wii because the quality of the graphics is so poor that it has to be a very persuasive title for us to buy it. We mainly use ours for Wii Fit and retro gaming.

The last game we bought was Force Unleashed and I have to say I was disappointed. I was hoping to be able to control the light sabre more intuitively, but having to learn special moves was a little tedious.

Graphics update is desperately need imho, but I suspect that's not possible with the current hardware?

Perhaps I should just admit I am one of those 'western gamers' that you keep mentioning? :)

Anonymous said...

@Chris Brind!

The thing with Wii is due to it's low resolution it's best played on fairly small televisions. If you play it on big lcds/plasmas it becomes a pixely mess because there are simply not enough pixels to fill the entire screen.

The other thing is well, aside from Galaxy and to some extent Prime 3 there are simply no games that takes advantage of Wii like they are supposed to. That will finally change this year with graphically intense titles like Monster Hunter 3 and hopefully Conduit (if they get the art direction right.)


Also cvonsider Tenchu 4 and Fatal Frame 4 they both look quite good imo eventhough they don't match next gen gfx

IALS

Chris Brind said...

@IALS

Cheers, I'll keep an eye out for them.

And yes, we're playing Wii on a 720p screen. It (Star Wars Unleashed anyway) actually looks better when I play it Picture-in-Picture...

Falafelkid said...

Hi Chris.

Graphics update is desperately need imho, but I suspect that's not possible with the current hardware?

Quite right, it's hard to find real stunners on Wii. But they do exist. I recommend 'ExciteTruck', 'Super Mario Galaxy', 'Metroid Prime 3', 'Zelda: Twilight Princess' as well as the upcoming 'Monster Hunter 3' and 'The Conduit'. Also keep an eye out for the Factor 5 games. I will be able to post more about them in the near future.

As far as playing Wii on a big telly is concerned, I disagree with what has been said above. I bought myself the VDigi VGA cable for Wii which allows you to connect the console via VGA to any computer screen running 480p. It looks absolutely stunning on my big screen. Or rather, it makes you realise how crap some games like 'Quantum of Solace' were developed. ;)

If you are playing on an HD telly, you really should use the component cable. 480p really looks much better. And you should expect Wii titles to improve visually over the course of this year. Third parties have been ridiculously lazy up until now. Just look at the first party games I mentioned above (particularly 'Metroid Prime 3') and you will see what the console is capable of.

Anonymous said...

@Falafelkid

"As far as playing Wii on a big telly is concerned, I disagree with what has been said above. I bought myself the VDigi VGA cable for Wii which allows you to connect the console via VGA to any computer screen running 480p. It looks absolutely stunning on my big screen."

Computer screen? uum sorry, but I doubt that the size of your computer screen matches what one would consider somewhat big for a LCD/Plasma namely at least 40'' and bigger!

On smaller screen diagonals than 40 inch with progressive scan(480) turned on the picture remains tolerable.

I think anyone who has expirienced places like for example Skytown in "Metroid Prime 3"(which sports gorgeous art direction/texture design and resolution/wide vistas/high poly counts particularly during the boss fights) and the underwater sharkskull level in "Mario Galaxy" (extremely vibrant colours/a very rounded smoothed look on the objects/ beatuiful and sophisticated lighting featuring specular highlights on many surfaces like the metallic rockets) on a properly sized TV, with solid colour settings and component cables, can testify how stunning Wii games can look and what it's capable of in the hands of the right engineers/programmers and artists.

"..all HDTV's suck at doing standard definition. It is not a matter of opinion, it is a fact. A 720x480 SD 16:9 signal has 345,600 pixels total and a 1080p HDTV with a screen resolution of 1920x1080 has a total of 2,073,600 pixels. That is a difference of 1,728,000 pixels which are being stretched into an ugly muddy mess when your HDTV scales a 480p Wii signal to fit the screen."

....but only on HDTV with 40 inch screens and bigger I should add. Again, on smaller ones with solid settings the picture maintains sufficient quality imo.



IALS

Falafelkid said...

Just to get in on this debate, as a television person and a technology editor. Most HD tv sets really do not show a decent PAL or NTSC picture. Upscaling is the only method and the result is usually far more blurry than your old cathode ray tube. In fact, nothing beats the good old cathode ray tube.

Anonymous said...

STOP CALLING RESOLUTION GRAPHICS IT ONLY SERVES TO SHOW HOW OUT OF TOUCH X360/PS3 OWNERS ARE

HD IS MEARLY HIGH RES WII BEING CAPPED AT 480P HAS SWEET FOOK ALL TO DO WITH SHADING TEXTURES LIGHTING ETC


STOP FOR CHRISTS SAKES CALLING HD GRAPHICS ITS HD A MARKETING TERM FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION PLEASE STOP DELOUDING YOUR SELFS THAT YOU HAVE HD GRAPHICS ITS A MARKETING TERM


YOU HAVE GRAPHICS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY SPARPER DUE TO HIGHER NATIVE RESOLUTIONS I.E HD BEING SUPPORTED

STOP ALLREADY WITH THE HD GRAPHICS MARKETING PHRASE


ROLLS EYES AT THE DUFFUS SONY/BILL FANS


PLAY QAUKE 3 ARINA AT 480P

THEN PLAY IT AT 1080P IT DOESNT MAGICALLY HAVE 1080P GRAPHICS IT MEARLY LOOKS A BIT SHARPER AND THATS YOUR LOT


HD GRAPHICS SHUT UP ALLLL READY

Anonymous said...

@anonymous above

Qualitywise 720p/1080p resolutions provide a tremendous difference particulary on big screens where 480p outputs start falling apart.

Ever played MGS4 on a big Sony 52 inch full HD screen? I have and I can tell you it would look hopelessly inferior on a 480p output no matter how powerful the engine is!

You mentioned you play on a 32 inch screen and that pretty much tells the whole story since a relatively small screen like yours is perfectly suited for Wii. There are enough pixels to fill the screen despite the resolution. So, of course it would look good on your set.

But stop fooling yourself HD is definitely an improvement over sd and a breakthrough for TV technology in general.

I have tried playing Wii games on that 52inch Sony screen too btw and I always felt inclined to switch into 4:3 mode because I couldn't take the blurry mess anymore. A 480p output just can't cope with what would be considered a big screen nowadays and that's not a matter of opinion.

IALS

Anonymous said...

"Also keep an eye out for the Factor 5 games. I will be able to post more about them in the near future."

Can we take your comment as a verification, that Factor 5 has at least two titles in development for Wii?

That would be very cool, cause this step is the best the campany can take in a situation like this! Also Julian could convert the Rouge Leader-Games with a new control-scheme to the Wii. This would be a clear chance of earning money.

If it fails, he must come back to Kölle. ;-)

Anonymous said...

a tremendous amount of extra detail I OWN A HD TV I WATCH TRUE HD CONTENT ON IT

THE DIFFERENCE IS SLIGHT ITS ALL A LITTLE MORE DEFINED

STOP HD FAN BOYING ITS SCIENTIFIC FACT RESOLUTION I.E PIXEL COUNTS ARE NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN A IMAGE

ITS COLOUR/CONTRAST/FILTERING/FRAMERATE/ETC


AS EVERY HD MYTH ARTICAL ON THE NET PROVES


BETTER GPUS BETTER EFFECTS BETTER USE OF EACH PIXEL/TEXEL IS FAR MORE GRAPHICALLY EFFECTIVE THAN MEARLY INCREASING A RESOLUTION


STOP STOP STOP WITH THE HD IS MAGICAL BS

480P SPIDERMAN 3 VS 1080P SPIDERMAN ON PS3 game

CLEARLY THE FILM LOOKS WAY BETTER RESOLUTION DOESNT EVEN COME INTO IT


I THINK WII HD/2 WHATEVER WILL USE SUPER RESOLUTION TO HELP FAKE HD AND INCREASE GPU EFFECTIVE PERFORMANCE

GREAT IDEA THE NATIVE RESOLUTION IS MEANINGLESS

ITS THE REAL WORLD PERFORMANCE YOU EXPERIENCE THAT MATTERS

and super resolution will allow huge bandwidth fillrate as native resolution can be held back a wii bit as super res scaling will help it look true 1080p


its not how its done its the final result that matters stop counting pixels

Anonymous said...

hasnt both ps3 and x360 allready cheated in this area

and im sure its motion currection and increasing screen quality and image boosting tech thats helping hd tvs get better NOT THE RESOLUTION THEY DISPLAY

THINK ABOUT IT HAY GUYS APPLY A BRAIN

Carmen said...

I had thought that Factor 5 closed down. Do you know something that we dont.

Anonymous said...

factor 5 maybe gone but i feel in my wiiwii that they may convert to a Nintendo only studio

just may happen

hasn't hd capped out at 1080p yet the quality still increases id say tech rather than resolution is making tv images sharper i agree not that resolution isn't great and all but to try and say resolution is the more important factor is very miss informed

you can have a great 480p image and a poor 1080p image resolution does not make or break a image

same goes sound you can have hd 7.1 it still may sound crap

but another game/etc maybe pro logic 2 and sound amassing


you cannot judge on format only final products polished to the tech they use


ITS THIS SIMPLE LOGIC SONY FANS JUST CARNT GET THERE HEADS AROUND

Anonymous said...

i was just wondering who desided 1080p was true and 1080i 720p was not true

is my tv a fake hd as sony or whoever deemed 1080p only as true


the point im making is !!!""""true"""!!! is the new marketing word

THERES NO SUCH THING AS TRUE HD thats a marketing term to brainwash folks into believing hype phrases insted of the truth


who deemed 1080p true did a big hard fighter stand up in a pub in hd lar lar land and say im the hardest cunt here i deem 1080p true

then all the other blokes went ok anything you say mate as your hard


COME ON GUYS A LIES A LIE THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS TRUE HD

Anonymous said...

@anonymous above


full HD not true HD!

Full HD TVs have a higher resolution than normal HD TVs.

What you don't understand is that you have to see the HD phenomenon in relation to the ever increasing sizes of TVs. The more pixels you have, the bigger your screen can be without the image getting blurry/pixely. There in lies the major strength of HD versus An SD signal. SD just can't keep up resolutionwise with what a 52 inch screen would "require" to maintain a sufficient quality image. Plasma and LCD technology enables people to buy bigger and thiner TVs for less money than before. It's a trend that will continue on. Again, that's what HD is good for frst and foremost to provide a higher quality image on bigger TVs. Of course, the overall image quality is dramaticaly improved too on HD but that's a nobrainer. The biggest advantage of HD over SD is that it provides a much clearer picture on XXL tvs imo.

IALS

Chris Brind said...

@IALS cue CAPS rant from guy who doesn't read anyone else's comments ...

Anonymous said...

2009 will be a good year for the wii. There's quite a few titles i'm looking forward such as Fatal frame 4, cursed mountain, madworld, the conduit, redsteel 2 and sadness (yes I believe nibris is at hard work.)

Also great post.

Anonymous said...

full/true THERE BOTH MARKETING LIES

IF I HAVE A MONITOR /TV CAPABLE OF ABOVE 1080P

THEN 1080P HAS JUST BEEN PROVEN NOT FULL OR TRUE


TRUE OR FULL THERE BOTH LIE WORDS AS IT IMPLYS A FACT WITCH IS IN FACT A LIE


THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS TRUE HD THAT'S A MARKETING PHRASE

THERES NO SUCH THING AS FULL HD ITS AGAIN A MARKETING PHRASE

WEN THE UK GOVERNMENT AND BBC HAVE THERE PLANNED SUPER HIGH RESOLUTION MONITORS IN ACTION AT NEXT OLYMPICS WITH PLANNED UP TO 32 TIMES 1080P RESOLUTION

I THINK FULL AND TRUE 1080P IS GOING TO LOOK A TAD SILLY


TRUE/FULL ITS A MADE UP PHRASE BY SONY ETC


TRUE/FULL/HD/ETC WERE NEVER USED 6 TO 10 YEARS AGO YET HD AS ITS NOW MARKETINGLY CALLED WAS AVALABLE ON PC
I.E HIGHER RESOLUTION

SO AGAIN OUT OF SHERE INTELIGENTS I CRY FOUL


I AINT GETTING BRAINWASHED BY SONY I AINT DUM


for the life of me i never ever heard a pc gamer say hd or hd graphics or full or true DO YOU KNOW WHY BECAUSE THATS HORSE SHIT ITS A RESENTLY MADE UP ADVERTIZING HYPE PHRASE

THATS WHY

Anonymous said...

WHEN I PLAYED QAUKE 3 ARINA AT TOP SETTINGS AND RESOLUTION BACK IN THE DAY HD/HD GRAPHICS/TRUE/FULL WERE NEVER EVER MENTIONED


I THINK MY LAST 2 POSTS JUST PROVED MY ANTI PS3 FANBOY ANTI X360 FANBOY POINT

THEY FOLLOW HYPE

A NINTENDO FAN FOLLOWS GENUINE EVOLUTION IN EVERYTHING !!!"""GAME"""!!!

WIIMOTE IS NEXT GEN FACTUAL


HIGHER RESOLUTION NOT NEXT GEN PC HAS DONE IT FOR YEARRRRSSSS

THE FACTUAL EVIDENCE JUST PURES OUT OF MY OVERLY CLEVER BRAIN

YOU CANNOT PULL WOOL OVER THESE EYES

Anonymous said...

@ crazy all caps guy

Why are you crazy?

Why do you type in all caps?

Anonymous said...

NO IM NOT INSANE THOSE BELIEVING HD MARKETING LIES ARE INSANE


DID YOU CALL QAUKE 3 ARINA A HD GAME NOOOOOOOO BUT IT WAS ACCORDING TO X360 PS3 FAN LOGIC YOU CARNT SEE MY POINT BECAUSE YOUR ETHER FAN INSANE AND MY TRUTHFULL POINTS OFFEND YOU

OR YOUR JUST BRAIN WASHED


HD IS NOT NEW AND HD IS MARKETING PHRASE FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION

AND THERES NO SUCH THING AS FULL OR TRUE HD THATS AGAIN A HD BADGE ON YOUR TV HYPING


SEE THRU THE SMOG YOU FOOOL

Anonymous said...

@anonymous above

HighDefinition is not just a marketing phrase. HD provides vastly improved image quality most notably on big screens where the difference compared to a low rez signal is staggering. HD is not just a marketing trick.


IALS

Anonymous said...

pc monitors can support much higher resolution than 1080p

THERE FOR 1080P IS NOT ETHER TRUE OR FULL IS IT

ITS FULL BECAUSE SONY'S MARKETING DEPARTMENT SAY SO IS IT

I THINK NOT

GUYS BRAINWASHING EXISTS YOUR VICTIMS OF IT


ITS LIKE A HUMAN KILLING VIRUS EVERYONES GOT IT AND DIES AND I STAND ALONE ON THE PLANET THE ONLY ONE WHO DIDN'T GET


I BELIEVE THE HYPE VIRUS

THATS HOW IT FEELS ON THE INTERNET A WISE GUY SURROUNDED BY GOOFS

WAKE UP TO WEN YOUR BEING BULL SHITTED TO

JESUS IT AINT HARD

Anonymous said...

@anonymous above


No one ever pretended that full HD(a 1080P resloution ) is the epitome of high definition technology and that it can't get any better. But that's besides the point anyway.

The point is that HD provides a vastly improved image over SD particularly on xxl sets where a 480 p output is at a dead end qualitywise.

Why do you keep on ignoring this simple fact?

full HD has 5 times the resolution of SD and this results in sharper images that sport more detail.

Just because Sony comes up with a name for people to associate these hgh rez TVs with doesn't mean it's a fraud. I wonder how you'd make that kind of assumptions? I have played many Ps3 games including GTA 4, MotorStorm and MGS4 on a 52 inch Sony full HD and I can testify that it looks incredibly sharp. And it's most certainly not just the PS3s tech that makes it look high rez and rich like you want to make us believe! Instead it's the combination of the tech and the TV's resolution that makes the difference.


Also note, whenever I played Wii on that 52 inch TV I felt inclined to shrink the picture by switching into 4:3 mode in order to keep it from becoming a blurry mess.

So, once and for all: A HD signal pushes 5 times as many pixels as a SD signal which in turn means that the image is much more defined and detailed.

Whether the names Sony created for it are valid or not is totally besides the point and irrelevant. Matter of fact is that HD is a step forward and not backwards or a hoax like you are making us believe.

Maybe you are just jealous because Wii games look like crap compared to PS3/360 games!?!
;-)


IALS

Anonymous said...

http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PG01&s1=Nintendo.AS.&OS=AN/Nintendo&RS=AN/Nintendo

Zelda goes casual (& hardcore)?

Anonymous said...

wii 2 super resolution video chip and a good gpu would make hd meaningless as super resolution scalling would support 1080p regardless of native resolution to a point

its not pixels and numbers that matter ITS REAL WORLD PERFORMANCE

Anonymous said...

2009

DEADLY CREATURES PRE ORDERED

CONDUIT PRE ORDERED

HOTD OVER KILL PRE ORDERED

MADWORLD PRE ORDERED

AWAITING MORE CORE TITLES TO BE SHOWN FOR 2009/10

WII IS D'DADDY

SONY FANS JUST GIVE IT UP UR LOOKING SILLY NOW

Chris Brind said...

SONY FANS JUST GIVE IT UP UR LOOKING SILLY NOW

lol, irony

Anonymous said...

nice blog. Talk about justifying your fanboyism through sales figures. I also enjoyed the 'metacritic must be wrong' article too.

lol

pass a drug test said...

From time to time I look through your blog and glad to tell that your articles become better. Continue just like now. Good job!

Anonymous said...

With the other Buy Diablo 3 Items more SK news how long from a arm or so are we talking the following? Task listings, having a budget numbers, certain purposes, generate scheduals, middleware getting purchased,GW2 Gold Nintendo wii console dev kits at their particular dojos?