The latest issue of Japanese economy magazine, Weekly Diamond, reveals that developers are unhappy with the state of PS3 development tools, and software is likely to be late in coming for the hardware. The article states that PS3 dev tools have only just started shipping to developers this month, while 360 tools were shipped last summer. Furthermore, SCE has not yet announced the price of the console, so developers are unable to predict what audience they are targetting games at. President of Enterbrain, Hirokazu Hamamura, says "We are unlikely to see games exhibiting a level only PS3 can achieve until the end of 2007."Sources: GameScience, Shuukan Diamond
The article goes on to compare the benefits of PS2 as a cheap DVD player when it launched in 2000, with PS3's Blu-Ray playback capabilities, the main difference between then and now being that the industry is currently deep in a format-war for next-generation video, and that Blu-Ray movies still don't exist. It is therefore deduced that the number of users who will pick it up as a cheap Blu-Ray player at launch is somewhat smaller, and that sales of game software will be key for the system.
Thanks to: Joystiq
somehow i have the feeling, that the ps3 is (in german) -> "ein griff ins klo!"
ReplyDeleteEww... what was that ?
ReplyDeleteSo do I. Sony might be in real trouble. Blu Ray might lose the next-gen DVD war, the hardware is both difficult and costly to develop for, there will be a cheaper alternative that offers fundamentally new and original gameplay and an equal alternative that will be available half a year earlier... and I am afraid to say: the PS3 design´s is a far cry from the superb industrial design Sony was known for in the past.
ReplyDeleteConsidering how much Sony will lose with each console sold, if the PS3 doesn´t become an immediate bestseller, Sony could seriously fold. And there are a lot of reasons why it might not become a bestseller.
What was what?
ReplyDeleteI think anonym wants to know what "griff ins klo" means :)
ReplyDeleteOh, okay. Sorry if I was a bit slow there. ;P It is best translated as ´Reaching out and putting your hand into the toilet´, I guess. It just means good intentions leading to... well... crap.
ReplyDeleteWill PS3 be this generation's 3DO? Or will Sony and its consumers somehow work things out?
ReplyDeleteTune in next time, same Bat Time. Same Bat Channel
hey falafel kid, did you pick up any info concerning the new issue of edge ? it was suppose to hold some kind of info on the revo ....
ReplyDeleteHang on, I read a post about that some days ago. Sorry, i couldn´t post it then. But there was no real news, I remember. Will try to post a link...
ReplyDeleteSony is taking a big gamble this generation towards its desire for "living room" dominance.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the time is literally perfect for such a big strike. They have dominated the market for 2 generations, and now with a new competitor each generation they will lose marketshare, unless they provide something that will help recapture the market.
That is what they believe Blue-Ray will do for them. Next generation Sony will either win BIG, or lose BIG. But you have to risk to survive in business.
Nintendo is also risking big. They are putting their entire future into a concept controller, that will fundamentally change how we play games. People may embrace it, or people may not...and that really will determine if they survive. At least, Nintendo's concept will be cheap enough for curious people to try.
Microsoft is the only company next generation not risking anything. They are jumping the gun early to get the new system out. It is super powerful, but not impossible to develop for. And it has a controller that everyone is used to, and knows how to use.
Microsoft already has secured its place next generation. It will at least be second, and could take first.
Nintendo and Sony are the two mystery candidates.
If Nintendo fails. Sony takes second, and Microsoft first. If Sony fails, Nintendo could take First.
Hi Anonymous. Thanks for the good comments here. I don´t agree with some of your conclusions, though.
ReplyDeleteI am pretty sure that Blu Ray is not a unique selling point. First of all, the format war is not decided. But, more fundamentally, a new format is not really desirable anyway. The DVD scored over VHS in a number of significant ways: it was more durable and it allowed for multimedia feature such as multiple audio and video tracks. Both Blu Ray and HD-DVD offer only more space (and consequently a higher resolution). So there is only a "more of something", rather than "something new". So there two critical issues here: Blu-Ray might not just lose the format war, there may be no sufficient demand for either format, at least for a number of years to come.
I also do not share your optimism concerning the Xbox360. I played it again yesterday and it is a sobering experience. Clearly, Microsoft rushed a number of games to the point, where they may indeed introduce an entirely original feature to home consoles: patches.
The Xbox360 has no chance of coming first, I believe. They may get second place if they are lucky. But only if Sony fails even worse. There are numerous experts that go on record by saying that PS3 and Xbox360 will only be able to use a decent aomunt of the hardware by the end of 2007. That is a bit late for impressing buyers. I believe Nintendo is best suited to win over a majority. In fact, I will be doubling my portfolio of Nintendo shares soon.
Speaking about disc formats, do we know if Revo will actually use DVD, or is it some format of their own once again ? I ask because I've always seen "12cm discs" about the Rev, and that's not really accurate.
ReplyDeleteYou don´t think Revo will use standard size discs? They probably will. I mean it plays back DVDs, so why not use DVD format for the games?
ReplyDeleteHi MR.Nintendo. Thanks for joining us again. I just want to expand on the current state of the next-gen DVD format war. The list of supporting movie studios weighs in favour of Blu Ray, true. But remember that Intel and Microsoft are on HD-DVD´s side. And a movie studio supporting Blu-Ray is a movie studio supporting their direct competitor. I don´t think it will take a lot for those studios to change their mind.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, the consumers are the ultimate decider. No matter what the companies decide. The consumers will have to buy it. if they don´t, it still fails. And in every important format war, the cheapest option won: VHS won against Betamax and Video 2000. The Gameboy won against GameGear and Lynx. Laserdiscs or Minidiscs never got off the ground, either. The reason is that the consumer market wants consumer prices. I would still put my money on HD-DVD.
Even so, I won't let Nintendo off easily if their console's graphics didn't match up to XBox360 or PS3s'.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to say whether or not that would be the case, given that Nintendo's interface over hardware stance is...shall we say, overconfident.
Hollywood and Broadway were named aptly to give us an idea about the graphics and performance and its true that GameCube was an optimal system (pushing all those effects with a high polygon count) and that Revolution should carry the same plus more with architecture, given that the N64/ArtX team is working a 3rd time only with ATi's finest this time around on the new GPU.
But on a business stance, I feel there may be some cutbacks that could keep the processor from being as powerful as it could be (shader applications, 64-bit color + lighting, cost effective processor speed, power consumption, cooling).
It's not that I'm saying graphics matter, but when you think about it, graphical hardware is what gives the visual to a developer's imagination. Gameplay is simply the interaction to that world.
In a nutshell I'd be PO'ed if most of the money going in the console's development was tilted in favor of the controller (no pun intended) whereas hardware wasn't so focused.
Even if PS3 is intimidating to developers, SOMEONE is going to want to be challenged from it at some point and those bottlenecks WILL be widened in time.
Nintendo, the weak point is exposed, now go DK on that smackaroni!
Hi and welcome. Good post! Two points:
ReplyDelete"most of the money going in the console's development was tilted in favor of the controller"
- In a way, yes. But Xbox360 has so little to show for itself, even given your assertion, Nintendo will be able to keep up for now.
"those bottlenecks WILL be widened in time."
- Again, yes. But read that comment: PS3 games will only make use of the hardware by late 2007. Also check [url]http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=27249[/url], the Xbox360 games will all be singlethreaded for now. By the time those consoles actually deliver, it may be time for a new console generation.
Even with that in mind, it is a bit much how some developers, other gamers and I already have it in our minds that Revolution is an underpowered system (not to be confused with having lower spec numbers).
ReplyDeleteThe fact is that we haven't seen any games that are in development to even PASS that judgment.
The games do matter, but so does that controller that plays them. If there are any more secrets on the controller no made public I sure hope they're big secrets. A 3D wand does sound good for swinging swords, doing dental, having a cooking game and all those other demonstrations we saw in the video.
There has to be some hook that discourages non-eccentric 3rd parties from resorting to the controller shell for their games.
Even still, Microsoft IS supporting the HD-DVD, but notice they aren't even putting it into their new system. I think MS learned their lesson about the last generation of video games. I also don't believe this hype about who's going to win what or what place a certain company is.. How's this sound, Xbox360 comes out...they're #1, why? Has PS3 or Rev come out no....so done deal. Genesis constantly kicked SNES butt around, then Nintendo won at the finish line. PSOne came out and it never gave up the lead, it made promises and kept them. PStwo came out off the heels of BACKWARDS compatibilty and XBOX was trying to be the Sega of 2000's and everyone killed the Gamecube, because of the "look" and the sheer lateness of the system... We shall see if MS keeps their promises for the 360. I've wanted a PS3 and Rev(i'm nintendo 4 life), but MS has sorta of convinced me of swinging over to them and away from PS3.
ReplyDeleteJC
Does someone have the Edge? A week or two earlier, Falafelkid posted a article that Edge maybe had some new Revolution informatien.. The Edge is suposed to be in stores (in the UK) right now.. Adn since I don't live in the UK, someone already has the Edge...
ReplyDeleteCOuld that someone please tell us what Edge has wrote about the Revolution.. or tell us that it wasn't about the Revolution after all..
I thank you !!!!!
http://www.edge-online.co.uk/archives/console/index.php
ReplyDeleteLooks like a Dec Issue will have it
Hi Red Bull and Vodka. Good to have you back, too. I appreciate your comments, but I don´t agree with a lot you are saying. Yes, MS and Intel do not seem to have much of a direct input on the decision. They will have some weigth indirectly, through partners, though.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, do not underestimate that all the movie studios that have joined (and it´s only Fox and Warner, as far as I can make out) do so grundgingly. They are well aware that the license fees they are paying are going directly into the pockets of their main competitor. Consider this point carefully. If they think they can swap camps, they will.
Thirdly, if HD-DVD players will cost almost $1.000 at first, consider what it will cost Sony to include Blu-Ray players in the PS3 and sell it for $400. They will be losing money like crazy. After all, Blu-Ray is the more expensive format, with regard to both players and discs.
And lastly, following on from that point: The cost of the discs will also sway the consumers. And Blu-Ray discs will cost substantially more. Here´s some info from ZDNet:
"HD-DVD discs will cost only a bit more than current DVDs. Sony estimates that single-layer Blu-ray discs initially can be produced for 10 percent more than today's double-layer DVDs, while double-layer Blu-ray discs will cost 50 percent more."
And remember that is a Sony estimate! The actual price may be way beyond that. So your arguments about "Why pay more" actually work in favour of HD-DVD, because what good is a player without a library of titles?
P.S.: You also failed to address my point about there being really no need for either new format. I am still extremely happy with your average DVD. Apart from more storage space (and consequently better resolution), either format will offer nothing over old DVDs. At any rate, they offer nothing new, only more of the old.
hi!
ReplyDeletesomething just popped into my mind. if i remember corretly, panasonic (matsushita in japan, if i remember correctly) did the cd drive for the gamecube. if they are building the cd/dvd/whatsoever drive for revolution, it may be a hd-dvd device (or at lease a modified version of it, since nintendo is nr.1 in piracy protection) because panasonic joined the good oh... ahh hd-dvd side...
I just wanted to comment on the comment about Dell, MS and Intel not having any say in the adoption of DVDs as a standard.
ReplyDeleteThat is true, but it is irrelevant. They weren't in the business of creating and selling VCRs to people. The average computer user didn't use a tape drive.
In this format war, either the Blu-Ray or HD-DVD could be used for more than just movies. Computer users have more of a stake in the high definition format war than in the transition from VHS to DVD.
Also, in addition to the switch from CD to DVD drives, it was a jump from a 700 MB capacity to a 4.7 GB capacity. There weren't two different camps for the higher capacity disc until the burners hit the market.
ReplyDeleteEven with the DVD-R and DVD+R drives, most home DVD players support both formats nowadays. The differences are negligible at this point. That won't be the case with HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray.
Hi Red Bull and Vodka
ReplyDeleteI'm really sure that Blu-Ray will doomed form start.
Movie studios will and must publish on what consumers select. Sony and Toshiba are not talking about a compromise thay know thay will lose for sure and compromise will don't do any thing.
Sony will use the PS3 as a trojan horse for Blu-Ray. But we don't know it will #1. Blu-Ray may make ps3 cost too much. and even make ps3 #3.
also both hd-dvd can store movie about 4h. too big already
Blu-Ray offer about 7h. for 50% more ...
but wait to day it hard to find movie as long as 3h. isn't it? and why pay more?
Developers was unhappy with the PSP at first because Sony was slow with giving out info and sdk's for the PSP. Now look at where they're at. Sure they dont have much games as DS but its still turning out some money and giving the DS a run for its money. In the first few years of every business when something new is introduced, you're expected to lose money so this is no different. Sony will start turning profits in the years to come. Its all about longevity and making profits. I wouldn't really put down the Xbox 360 either. The graphics now may not look good but give it another year and we'll start seeing some really high def graphics.
ReplyDeleteopps! sorry.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/9377
/Confirmed-Toshiba-Delays-US-Launch-of-HD-DVD/
HD DVD format is supported by cutting-edge blue-laser technology, new high level data-processing techniques, and highly-efficient video-compression technologies. A single, dual-layer HD DVD ROM disc, which has a 30-gigabyte capacity, ****can hold as much as eight hours**** of high-quality, high definition movie content.
Blu-Ray offer longer than hd-dvd (8h) and will about 13-14h if it store same way. for 50% more price ... but it no need to buy more for unused space (movie used about 3h)
I don't have time to finish a movie that must put on Blu-Ray or nearly full HD-dvd in one day for sure - -"
Ps3 may be third. why?
x-box360 first start it will get so maney gamer form start. x-box360 have good game list. and x-box360 at 400$ having hdd for mp3 and all windows media center ready.
For Revolution. Nintendo move to the bigger target not only now a day gamer. no one say revolution's graphic will poor yes cpu is not as good as other. but have that controller. It price is near 200$. so even you have x-box or ps3 already you may look for it. Revolution also have some more hidden.
But Ps3 start late than x-box360 about a year. It will be expensive (sony say that when remove router and hdd. and it's "sony expensive") shot of game list (dv-kit just out less game for it) don't have a harddisk (so it can't open mp3 on it price) maybe it even can't open old cd and dvd (like ps2) it market in his old target that x-box do for a year already.
Longer length of a movie mean pay more but if it no used who will buy it?
If ps3 not #1 will it able to trojan ? ... there is also some people don't play game and thay don't pay more.
dvd is some other thing cd picture is really poor have to used 2 disk to finish. and tv support dvd already. but hd-dvd and Blu-Ray is other thing you need that expensive hd-tv to see a small change. So I think Blu-Ray will end like betamax.
opps! again
ReplyDelete30-gigabyte HD DVD ROM disc is 2 layer
50-gigabyte Blu-Ray disc is 2 layer too
so 4h. and 7h. are correct (for single layer)
How much do you think the PS3 is going to be?
ReplyDelete: How do you think it will. It have cell cpu and rsx gpu it can't cheep. even Blu-Ray will cost ps3 50$ more (even it used on-bord sound card and poor main-bord that can't let cpu and gpu work at it max performance)
: And how do you think Hd-Dvd player that it's driver cheeper than Blu-Ray driver and other device are same?
What the hell does the length of a movie have to do with the any of this?
: movie now a day run under 4h. so both *work* for movie. But Blu-Ray will more *expensive*. how people will select? ... Ok. How md end it's about 4 cd space. but *expensive*.
: betamax is over price so it die. betamax , md and Blu-Ray are go same way.
Quoting an X-Box website is not really the most impartial source for the Blu-Ray / HD-DVD debate.
: You can find it on other website too. I fond it on first page by google. Do you have any source? it will the same. This data can't fake
: More to ps3 at 400$. it's might fake. Blu-Ray not have a movie player yet. so now no source for it. (even what sony do at e3 are fake)
In my, and most other people's opinions, the PS3 will be $400. The market will dictate this, just like it did with the XB360. These products are not cost plus items - they are sold at a level that the market can bare.
ReplyDelete: so you don't know it will 400$ or not. on ps2 how older console price and how ps2 price?
And please, no-one gimme this XB360 is $300 crap. With a hard drive, wireless controllers, etc. - it's $400.
: I don't say 300$. do I? ... I say x-box360 +hdd and windows media center VS your ps3 (and in my opinion ps3 not that your 400$ Quit smokin' that stuff. Sony fan boy. just rsx cost more than 150$ How rsx and so on... sony might sale ps3 under cost ... but how much sony can pay for "WORLD")
: And how do you think Hd-Dvd player will price? more than 400$ it's just old dvd + 10% more for hd-dvd. it's not all new player.
I'm really struggling to understand you, but I'll take a stab at it anyway. I think you fail to see it's not the length of the movie that is key, it the quality of presentation, extras, resolution (audio & video) and lossless compression codecs (or lack of compression altogether)that takes up the space. DVD's are already maxed out, after just 7 years. When I first got a 20GB hard drive I never thought I'd fill it. But guess what, I can't live on less than a 60GB nowadays.
: So small will poor quality. No you got something wrong. Do you know? code divx and h264? who bigger who better? Hd-dvd will make code by microsoft. So it will only small different. For Blu-Ray that unseen different will cost you and how much people will buy it? I mean who using 8mm. it far better than vhs or dvd. how much people buy it?
you believe they are the cheaper than the other one. Being that no-one has sold anything yet
: Sony estimates that single-layer Blu-ray discs initially can be produced for 10 percent more than today's double-layer DVDs, while double-layer Blu-ray discs will cost 50 percent more. And remember that is a Sony (Blu-ray side) estimate! The actual price ....
It seems like you're trying to say that Sony didn't have a real Blu-Ray player @ E3? What the fu..? Blu Ray has been on sale in Japan for over a year!!!
: And how much dose it cost? I know you will ask. how much dose only dvd player cost? And How much if that dvd player +cell cpu +rsx gpu will cost? ... you might need to remake ps3 price. : p
HD-DVD + 10% is the cost of the media (the disc), not the player. It is a totally new player. Are you trying to tell me that Wal-Mart will sell a HD-DVD player for $30 + 10% on day one??
ReplyDelete: opps. yes the media is 10% more. so it will... cost less than bru-ray 50% more. even for computer or that player. ... sorry I just a little mass up.
: So do you think when hd-dvd player fiish it will more expensive than bru-ray?
The lastest Sony Blu-Ray recorder (not just a player, but a recorder also) retails for about $625 in Japan. So when we do it your way (which is non-sensical and totally flawed) and we simply add the RSX Gpu, Cell Cpu and all the other crap to it the PS3 will surley cost over $1,000, right? Do you really think the PS3 will cost over $1,000?
: No not over 1000$ just some thing about 600-800$ minus it's a recorder. then add some price to RSX Gpu, Cell Cpu ,sony may a little pay for make it under price and all the other crap. sony may do something like ps2 it may un able to play cd or dvd. ... now think about this x-box360 ready to reduce price when ps3 out
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/r/
?page=http://www.computerandvideogames
.com/news/news_story.php(que)id=125729
"We will wind up cost-reducing the product every year,"
and revolution about 200$
------now rice war : ------
*** Ps3 minium about 600-800$ (not have hdd , router been remove and sound on bord. still it's ref. price)
*** X-box minium at 300$ (not have hdd and it's ref. price but ready to reduce ***microsoft say about pipe lineand. integer performance. DRAM. (help shader) and better frame buffer. all that x-box360 is better than ps3 eg. have more performance even lower hardware (eg.put 2ghz cpu to 1gb ram better performance than put 3ghz. cpu to main board that have only 32mb ram)***)
*** revolution about 200$ have at last 1 add on (dvd player , hdd suport , other device include in box still undecide and may not include in ref price set (but still have at last 1 add on). 1/2gig flash memory for something but may used for save game only ... may)
If ps3 not #1 will it able to trojan ? ... there is also some people don't play game and thay don't pay more.
I have read your article, it is very informative and helpful for me.I admire the valuable information you offer in your articles. Thanks for posting it..
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