The final word

I am going to be on holiday this week - just when the Revolution will be presented. Talk about perfect timing, eh? Anyway, I´m leaving the day after tomorrow - and no, it´s not to Tokyo, if you are asking - so I guess this will be the final word before the Revolution will be revealed, most likely during Iwata´s speech before the TGS. This is why I want to use this post to summarize all key points we have been discussing here during the last three and a half months. As it´s a summary, I won´t back up everything I write or link to sites. You can find all the details in the relevant posts below. I will also finally abandon all fine journalistic tradition and plainly state my opinion and pure belief in this piece. It´s just a few days until we all get to see who was right, so I might as well ;P

THE EVIDENCE

* The console stand: It´s slanted, which must be more than a mere design feature, because it makes the console more likely to be knocked over. In my mind, this would suggest that the console is ´pointing up´ at the player. This would in turn suggest some kind of direct interaction, more specifically a data exchange, between console and controller, e.g. some kind of projection method.

* The size: The console will be tiny. This could point towards the plain hardware being not much more powerful than the GameCube. If so, the method of viewing could be the revolutionary ingredient. In fact, there has been a reliable source stating recently that a portable GameCube was at least considered by Nintendo a few years back. The Revolution could be that. At the size of three DVD cases stacked, it will be a fairly portable device anyway. And given some kind of 3D projection, even a portable Revolution would still compete with the other home consoles.

* The GCN controller ports: This is one of the weirdest details about the Revolution. The console would only need the old controller if the new controller was something completely different. Either you can only use the new controller only with some games, or the new controller utilizes a technology that some people might want to get a rest from.

* Nintendo quotes: There will be fewer buttons, games will be cheaper and easier to develop. Again, this would suggest less hardware power and some kind of new input technology.

DEVELOPER´S QUOTES

* "Nintendo is waking up."

* "You will be very pleasantly surprised."

* "Never underestimate Nintendo."

THE HYPE

* Nintendo ON: I will finally come out and admit that I have never been convinced that the Nintendo ON clip was fake after all. My interview with Pablo threw up more questions than it answered, the same must be said about the 1up feature. The clip was just too well produced to have been done by one guy in a week. And even if it was done in a week, why did the otherwise excellent clip end so amateurishly? Why does the ON logo resemble a logo Nintendo trademarked in the late eighties and renewed since then? I believe that it´s likely that Nintendo was somehow involved in the clip. I don´t think the ON helmet is a final product - or was ever intended to be one. For that, its looks are just too far off from the console. But I do think this was meant to be an indicator of what the Rev would deliver. It was meant to generate hype and it worked a treat.

* Adverts: All fake.

* Seriousgamer007: Completely fake. No affiliation to anything. Not even to puberty, I guess.

* Pictures of the console in people´s living rooms: All fake. Iwata most likely won´t even show a working prototype during his speech. Games will most likely be running off a dev kit.

POSSIBLE TECHNOLOGIES

* Pressure-sensitive pads: An interesting idea, but nothing huge. Also, there was no conrete evidence fo this technology. I don´t think so.

* Gyroscopes: I treat this technology as a given. Nintendo´s deal with Gyration, Inc. is a pretty good indicator here, though the full amount of involvement has not been disclosed.

* Heat pads: A nice idea, but nothing revolutionary. Again, no concrete evidence.

* Haptics: A patent found in early July suggests haptic feedback. But believing in gyroscopes makes me think that haptics would just be too much. Nintendo cannot include everything. The standard controller can cost no more than $40, I guess.

* Augmented Reality (AR): A real possibility in my opinion. And contrary to popular opinion, this technology is not too expensive to be implemented. While prototypes cost up to $10.000, low-level implementation for the mass-market could cost well below $100 per controller.

* Virtual Reality / Stereoscopic 3D projection: This technology is similar to AR. So the above point about costs is equally valid with regard to this technology. There is no cooperation between Nintendo and eMagin, but there may very well be a cooperation with P.O.C. I rate stereoscopic 3D a likely contender. It´s revolutionary, it allows for gaming with fewer buttons and need not put off newcomers, depending on the implementation.

* Neural input / Brainwave controller: The mood sensor, as developed by Neurosky is a possibility and could be quite fun: Relax before you cross a narrow bridge. Stuff like that. If you are thinking of actually steering objects with your thoughts, I must disappoint you. There is no way this could be implemented in a competitive videogame console.

CONTROLLER MOCK-UPS

From all controller mock-ups that have been floated on the net, not a single one convinced me. The most likely contender is the one pictured below, though I strongly believe the Cyrillic writing gives this away as a fake, too. It is the only controller we saw that actually fits the console, though, as well as Nintendo´s hints about fewer buttons and the like.

CONCLUSION

Finally, I expect a gyroscopic controller but I also strongly believe in the possibility of some kind of projection method as an optional extra, most likely stereoscopic 3D projection. In particular, I don´t think that goggles would be Nintendo´s weapon of choice. I think that there will be some kind of plate of glass the visuals will appear on, either integrated into the controller or, more likely, the console itself. Haptics, mood sensors, heat or pressure-sensitive pads are all a possibility, but the basic controller can only feature a maximum of two of these. I vote for gyroscopes. Haptics are the second most likely option, I guess.

I expect the release date will be later than some rumours have made us believe. Dev kits went out in June or July. Some developers were still not in the know until August. I know this for a fact. Hence, I don´t see any way the Revolution could launch before autumn 2006. Most likely we are looking at a release between August and December. I expect the console to be priced at $299 because the actual hardware will not need to be very powerful by comparison (given that there will be some kind of 3D projection). An additional stereoscopic projection system would be around $100. It´s certainly a possibility. Now let´s wait and see if I´m right.