Looking forward to 2009

This is part two of my two part post, looking at the past year and the one ahead. In the first part below, I noted that North American and European review scores showed a lack of quality titles on Wii, but that Japanese reviews saw the console ahead.

I also argued that a lot of Western gamers keen on traditional games wrongly saw the Wii as carving its own niche, not realising that they themselves had become the niche and Nintendo's 'Touch Generations' titles now formed the mainstream of videogames.

Finally, I predicted that the sheer numbers of Wii consoles sold would convince third parties to both increase their Wii budgets and widen their portfolio to include more traditional games.

The sheer numbers

Starting our outlook with those numbers, the Thanksgiving weekend in the USA saw unprecedented sales of the hardware with 800.000 Wii consoles sold. In the entire month of November, more than two million units were sold.

Software sales were just as solid, as can be seen in the following statistics provided by Gamasutra. Up until October, four out of the five top-selling videogames in 2008 were Wii titles, all of them first party exclusives (not adding the Xbox360 and PS3 versions of 'Grand Theft Auto 4').

Top-selling videogames in 2008 (by unit sales, January through October)

1. 'Super Smash Bros. Brawl' (Wii): 3,5 million (estimated)
2. 'Mario Kart' (Wii): 3,4 million
3. 'Grand Theft Auto 4' (Xbox360): 3,2 million (estimated)
4. 'Wii Play' (Wii): 3,0 million
5. 'Wii Fit' (Wii): 2,8 million

In 2007, only two Wii titles made that list. The highest ranking one was 'Wii Play', making both lists. Also take into account that 'Wii Fit' is a premium title, bundled with hardware, and makes for significantly more revenue than games sold at a normal price.

Everybody's darling

It almost seems that Wii still is everybody's darling, with the possible exception of some Western gamers keen on traditional titles. Back in late 2006, Wii convinced the mainstream press right from the start. At the same time, a majority of developers randomly selected by Gamasutra personally preferred Wii over the PlayStation3. And this trend is continuing. TIME magazine voted ´Wii Fit´ one of their Top Ten Gadgets of 2008 while Forbes is feeling almost "sorry for Microsoft and Sony".


Nintendo's Christmas present to journalists in 2008: a Nintendo tree

Lastly, most industry analysts believe the Wii will continue to lead. NPD's industry analyst Anita Frazier believes that the console "really has incredible momentum heading into 2009" and especially notes the success of third party games like 'Guitar Hero World Tour'.

Many more Wii games will be announced soon, Michael Pachter, analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities, told Reuters (via Yahoo News).

To me, the big story is what happens on the Wii because it's the dominant platform, and it will be interesting to see how the publishers approach the Wii audience. (...)

There must be dozens of Wii games planned for holiday 2009 that we don't know about yet, and I think that many games will be designed to use the Wii Fit balance board that we haven't conceived of yet.

Big titles in 2009

But, of course, we know of many big titles slated for 2009 already. NeoGAF user BDGAME compiled a comprehensive list, too long to reprint here. Browsing through it, you will find a wealth of RPGs and survival horror games. So will those Western gamers keen on traditional titles I have been citing so much finally make their peace with Wii? Will Wii finally become the next great gamer's console?

I would not be surprised if one of the two games Hideo Kojima has in store was a Wii exclusive. After all, he said back in May 2006 that he would like to develop for the console.

As a game designer, I'm very interested in creating something for the Wii. I'd like to run away from MGS 4 creation and create something for the Wii but unfortunately, I don't have anything that I can announce at the moment. I have lots of ideas for Wii but I have a heavy schedule with MGS 4 and Metal Gear Online (...) If I created something for Wii, I would like to create something entirely different to a normal FPS. I don't mind using the MGS world as a theme but currently I'm not thinking about that. I'd like to give Wii users a new experience - I think the Wii controller can be used in more innovative and fun ways.

Tetsuya Mizuguchi ('Space Channel 5', 'Rez') is developing a Wii game. The announcement of 'Dragon Quest X' as a Wii exclusive is another huge step in that direction, as is, perhaps most of all, 'Monster Hunter 3'.

Originally announced as a PlayStation3 exclusive, the title was switched to Wii "due to high development cost of titles for PS3". British gaming magazine EDGE believes that this title will mark a turning point for the Nintendo console.

Many are hoping that Monster Hunter‭ ‬3‭ ‬will be a turning point for Wii in Japan.‭ ‬Not in terms of sales,‭ ‬but in terms of perceptions among Japanese consumers,‭ ‬who still look on PS2‭ ‬as the last great‭ ‘‬gamer’s console‭’‬.‭ ‬The huge popularity of the title during TGS,‭ ‬and the very favourable feedback Capcom has had from fans and the press,‭ ‬suggests it may just have a chance.

To me, titles like 'House of the Dead: Overkill', 'The Conduit' and 'MadWorld' will mark that turning point, certainly in the Western world (where such a shift is much more needed). Either way, I strongly believe that in 2009, we will see a significant shift in both the public's as well as publishers' perception of the Wii.

Naturally, this year will also see some of the strongest games released on the other two systems with 'Resident Evil 5', 'Alan Wake', 'Killzone II' and 'God of War III'. But I nevertheless believe that 2009 will become the year in which the Nintendo console rightfully takes on the legacy of the previous great gamer's consoles, such as the NES and the PlayStation2.

Sources: Games Industry, GameDaily, Gamasutra, Gamasutra, TIME, Forbes, GameDaily, Reuters (via Yahoo News), BDGAME, 1UP, CVG, TechRadar, Game|Life, Forbes, EDGE

Looking back at 2008

As another year is coming to a close, it is time to look back at 2008 and to look forward to 2009. With regards to the Wii and its competitors, what developments have there been over the past year? And what are we likely to witness over the next twelve months? I will explore this topic in a two part post. Let us start with the question whether 2008 was a good year for Wii owners.

Low Metacritic scores

When looking back at 2008 and comparing Metacritic scores, the Wii is clearly lagging behind the competition. In case you are unfamiliar with the site, Metacritic accumulates review scores from mostly North American and some European media outlets and calculates an average score out of 100.

Looking at all current-gen titles released this year which scored above 85 percent, Xbox360 and PlayStation3 boast 17 each, while Wii has a mere 8 to show for itself. And this is no statistical flaw. Even counting games ranked above 80 percent, the Sony and Microsoft consoles have 43 titles each, while Nintendo's little box has only 22. When considering the year's top ten games, Wii titles only made it to the number seven and eight spots (´Super Smash Bros. Brawl´ and ´World of Goo´, respectively).

Is this perhaps simply indicative of the shovelware the market leader gets, I asked myself? Unfortunately, no. In 2002, the PlayStation2 had 21 titles above 85 percent, the Xbox had 19 and the GameCube 17. In 2003, PS2 had 26, Xbox 24 and GameCube, again, 17.

Looking at 2007, though, the field is more stretched out. Xbox 360 leads that year with 14 titles above 85 percent. PS3 has 10 and the Wii 6. Nintendo also has the year's highest rated title, ´Super Mario Galaxy´, albeit it being the only top ten entry for the console.

High Famitsu rankings

But there are other statistics to consider, other measures of quality titles. In 2008, Japan's reputable weekly gaming magazine Famitsu awarded only three perfect scores, two of which to Wii exclusives. The magazine is published by Enterbrain who also track and publish sales figures.

The first perfect Wii game of 2008 was, quite obviously, ´Super Smash Bros. Brawl´. Unexpectedly, the second was a graphic novel called ´428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de´ developed by SEGA. Here is a trailer.



Let us have a look at all the perfect scores awarded by Famitsu over the last ten years. Out of the nine games who received the top rating, five were exclusive to Nintendo consoles and only one of those was a portable game. With the exception of SEGA's graphic novel, though, all were first party titles.

´The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time´ (N64, 1998)
´Soul Calibur´ (Dreamcast, 1999)
´Vagrant Story´ (PlayStation, 2000)
´The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker´ (GameCube, 2003)
´Nintendogs´ (DS, 2005)
´Final Fantasy XII´ (PS2, 2006)
´Super Smash Bros. Brawl´ (Wii, 2008)
´Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots´ (PS3, 2008)
´428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de´ (Wii, 2008)

Looking at Famitsu's highest ranked games of 2008, each current-gen console has three entries with Wii leading the pack.

Wii redefining the mainstream

So, North American and European review scores betray a distinct lack of quality Wii titles compared to the competition, while Japan's most reputable reviewers see no such gap at all. Why do these indicators differ so greatly? I assume that Famitsu is more ready to accept Wii as a platform for new kinds of gaming. Just consider a more unusual DS game like ´Another Code´ aka ´Trace Memory´. Its Metacritic score is a measly 70 percent while Famitsu scored it a 35 out of 40, translating to a percentage of 88. I believe that Japanese gamers are simply more open to new ideas.

The Wii's tremendous and overwhelming success is often misinterpreted by traditional gamers in Europe and North America. Often you hear them talk about how Wii has found its niche, not realising that they themselves are the niche now. Wii has redefined what must be considered mainstream gaming. Christening something as mainstream is not a question of content or interpretation, it is all about numbers. And they are as clear as anything.

Conclusion

So, all in all, it would be wrong to say that games for Nintendo's newest console lack in quality. After all, ´Wii Sports´ is one of the most immersive and addictive videogames in decades. It was TIME Magazine's game of the year 2006 whose editor noted that "it might be the greatest videogame ever made" for precisely those reasons.

It is true, however, that the Wii lacks high quality traditional games. There are solid titles to be found in every genre, but far less than on the other two consoles. Why is that? Mainly, Nintendo has the weakest third party relations of the big three. This, in turn, is owed to the fact that no other hardware manufacturer is as successful a publisher as Nintendo.

But will this remain the status quo in 2009? No, I believe. The sheer numbers of Wii consoles sold will convince third parties to both increase their Wii budgets and widen their portfolio to include more than the ´Touch Generations´ type games. This will be the topic of the second part of the post.

Thanks to: MaxConsole, Go Nintendo, Joystiq

3D after all?, part III

There are rumours that the PlayStation3 will be the next console to offer stereoscopic three-dimensional visuals. Apparently, Sony "fully intends" to support 3D output, both for gaming and Blu-ray playback as of 2009.

The rumours originate from a website called Meant to be seen, a self-proclaimed "stereoscopic 3D Certification and Advocacy group" financed by some 3D hardware manufacturers. The website has published an article which claims:

I have received confirmation from Blitz Games Studios that Sony "fully intends" to support stereoscopic 3D gaming and Blu-ray 3D on the Sony Playstation 3 (PS3) in 2009. Blitz will of course be helping back this technology with their Blitz Tech engine.

The best part is console support will only need a bios upgrade to work, and we are told that the ability to add this capability via bios may be unique to Sony PS3 versus the other console solutions.

Blitz Games Studios has developed the ´King Games´ for Burger King, ´Fuzion Frenzy´ and ´Zapper´, as well as the questionable ´Reservoir Dogs´ and ´Bad Boys II´. The company also licenses middleware technology called BlitzTech, which they claim has "powered over 25 titles, totalling over 70 releases covering 8 platforms". It would appear, though, as if the studio has been unable to sell their technology to other developers.

Nevertheless, the BlitzTech features make an impressive read. The paragraph about 3DTV is accompanied by the following mock-up - bearing a PlayStation3 controller.

BlitzTech is at the forefront of rising interest in 3D displays for the home with exciting possibilities for presenting content with higher realism and sense of player immersion in breathtaking 3D. In a complex market with competing technologies the key to increasing adoption is to ensure compatibility with the widest possible range of displays to unlock the potential of amazing 3D display hardware out there. The engine provides a highly flexible stock solution that supports all current suitable formats including active and passive glasses as well as newer auto-stereoscopic displays not only on PC but uniquely also on high-definition console - an industry first.

While there have always been third party solutions for converting standard video signals into stereoscopic 3D images by means of shutter glasses, this would be only the second time ever that a console manufacturer fully endorses the technology, after Nintendo's failed Virtual Boy.

I am a little suspicious of this rumour. Auto-stereoscopic displays still are too expensive to reach a mass market. Of course, videogame companies have been toying with this technology for years. But, currently, headgear is the only possible means to bring 3D visuals to a large audience. And what normal person wants to sit on a couch wearing glasses?

Ubisoft is developing a 3D game, which apparently will use shutter glasses. But in a trailer from 2007, the publisher made it quite clear that they want to do away with those glasses, if possible.

I am sure that there is some truth to this rumour. If Sony is being mentioned, they must have been in talks with the studio. However, I can only cynically assume that both the studio and the so-called advocacy group blew Sony's positive feedback totally out of proportion. After all, building hype is just what these two companies want.

Having said that, I would absolutely love it if this rumour was true and I could watch my EyePet run circles around me next year. That would no doubt become the system seller which Sony so badly needs.

Sources: Meant to be seen, Blitz Games Studios
Thanks to: Raphael, Joystiq